歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2007-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2007-1(2007)

下面的評論和數字只適用于海運的世界煤炭市場(chǎng)。他們是初步的。2006年，全球海運煤炭市場(chǎng)總量增加了35億噸，增幅達5%。由于對印度尼西亞和越南的估計相當低，這一數字還將進(jìn)一步增長(cháng)。動(dòng)力煤(見(jiàn)表2)動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)分為太平洋市場(chǎng)和大西洋市場(chǎng)。這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)之間的噸位交換是次要的，數量約占7 - 8%的海上貿易的蒸汽煤。進(jìn)入大西洋市場(chǎng)的主要出口國是印度尼西亞(來(lái)自太平洋地區)。印度尼西亞和越南正在推動(dòng)他們的出口。中國減少了800萬(wàn)噸的出口，增加了近1500萬(wàn)噸的進(jìn)口(蒸汽煤和無(wú)煙煤)，這意味著(zhù)其他出口國必須填補2300萬(wàn)噸的缺口。這主要是由印度尼西亞和越南完成的。在2006年上半年，大西洋供應市場(chǎng)也經(jīng)歷了令人失望的演變，但在下半年可能會(huì )恢復。(三)煉焦煤供應(見(jiàn)表3)2006年海運煉焦煤出口總量減少400萬(wàn)噸。中國進(jìn)一步減少從海運世界市場(chǎng)進(jìn)口煉焦煤。在一定程度上，仍處于高位的煉焦煤庫存必須降至正常水平，以壓低需求?？煽诳蓸?lè )的市場(chǎng)在2006年開(kāi)始復蘇。中國報告稱(chēng)，由于供應良好，中國出口更強勁，因此出口近1500萬(wàn)噸煤(見(jiàn)表1)。哥倫比亞的罷工對價(jià)格的影響有限。天然氣價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲，擴大了歐洲國家國際動(dòng)力煤的競爭優(yōu)勢。焦煤/焦炭焦煤全年穩定在高水平。中國的焦炭離岸價(jià)在7月/ 8月略有上升，但在年底下降了17-20美元/噸，達到160-170美元/噸的離岸價(jià)(含12%，5%的焦炭)。運費運費率在年中之前一直比較穩定。從理查茲灣到鹿特丹的披風(fēng)型散貨船的基準運費在上半年浮動(dòng)在10 - 15美元/噸之間。從那以后，運費上漲，目前處于20-24美元/噸的高水平。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market.  They are preliminary.  World Market Coal The total seaborne coal market increased by 35 Mio t or 5 % in 2006. The figures will  grow further, as the estimates for Indonesia and Vietnam are rather low.  Steam Coal (see Table 2) The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents  about 7 – 8 % of the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is Indonesia (from the Pacific side).  a) Pacific Market supply Indonesia and Vietnam are pushing their exports. China reduced its exports by 8 Mio  t and increased its imports by nearly 15 Mio t (steam coal and anthracite), that means  that the other exporters have to fill the gap of 23 Mio t. That has mainly been done by  Indonesia and Vietnam.  b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply market also saw a disappointing evolution in the first six months  of 2006 but could make up tonnage in the second half of the year.  c) Coking coal supply (see Table 3) In total coking coal seaborne exports were decreasing in 2006 by 4 Mio t.  China reduced its coking coal imports from the seaborne World Market further. Partially still high stocks of coking coal at the consumer sites have to be reduced to normal levels pushing down demand.  The market for coke is picking up in 2006. China is reporting stronger exports because of good availability and therefore exported nearly 15 Mio t.  d) Price evolution (see Table 1)  Steam coal  The fob-price for South African coal is still floating between 48 - 52 US$/t. The strike  in Columbia had only a limited influence on prices. The prices of gas increased further and were enlarging the competitive advantage of international steam coal in the  European countries. Coking coal / Coke  Coking coal was stable at high levels for hard-coking coal throughout the year. The  coke price fob – China increased slightly in July / August but decreased by 17-20  US$/t at the end of the year to reach 160-170 US$ /t fob-China (coal with 12,5% ashcoke).  Freight  The freight rates were relatively stable until the middle of the year. The benchmark  freight rates for cape-sized bulk carriers from Richards Bay to Rotterdam were floating in a range between 10 – 15 US$/t in the first half year. Since then, freight rates  increased and are currently at high levels between 20-24 US$/t.