歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2006-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2006-3(2006)

下面的評論和數字只適用于海運的世界煤炭市場(chǎng)。他們是初步的。今年上半年，全球海運煤炭市場(chǎng)增長(cháng)了7百萬(wàn)公噸，僅增長(cháng)了2%。增長(cháng)率很可能不會(huì )代表全年。我們預計全年將有4%的強勁增長(cháng)。動(dòng)力煤(見(jiàn)表2)動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)分為太平洋市場(chǎng)和大西洋市場(chǎng)。這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)之間的噸位交換是次要的，數量約占7 - 8%的海上貿易的蒸汽煤。進(jìn)入大西洋市場(chǎng)的主要出口國是印度尼西亞(來(lái)自太平洋地區)。)太平洋市場(chǎng)供應印尼和越南正在推動(dòng)他們的出口,而中國出口減少4緒t和增加進(jìn)口了近5緒t(動(dòng)力煤和無(wú)煙煤),這意味著(zhù)其他出口商必須填補一個(gè)空白9緒t b)大西洋市場(chǎng)供應大西洋供應市場(chǎng)也看到一個(gè)令人失望的進(jìn)化在2006年的前六個(gè)月。哥倫比亞和南非遠遠落后于它們的出口目標。我們預計下半年這些國家的出口將會(huì )更加強勁。c)焦煤供應(見(jiàn)表3)在今年上半年，焦煤海運出口總量下降了700萬(wàn)噸。焦煤市場(chǎng)充其量將達到2005年的水平，但很可能在2006年下降。中國減少了從海運世界市場(chǎng)進(jìn)口的焦煤。在一定程度上，消費場(chǎng)所仍有大量焦煤庫存，必須將其降至正常水平?？煽诳蓸?lè )的市場(chǎng)在2006年開(kāi)始復蘇。d)價(jià)格演變(見(jiàn)表1)動(dòng)力煤南非的焦煤價(jià)格仍在每噸48至52美元之間浮動(dòng)。哥倫比亞的罷工對價(jià)格的影響有限。天然氣價(jià)格進(jìn)一步上漲，并在上半年擴大了國際動(dòng)力煤在歐洲國家的競爭優(yōu)勢。焦煤/焦炭焦煤在高水平下穩定，為硬焦煤。7月/ 8月，焦炭的fob中國價(jià)格略有上漲，但隨后又回落至150美元/噸的fob中國價(jià)格，其中含12%，5%的灰焦。運費運費率在年中之前一直比較穩定。從理查茲灣到鹿特丹的披風(fēng)型散貨船的基準運費在上半年浮動(dòng)在10 - 15美元/噸之間。從那以后，運費上漲，目前(11/06)為每噸24美元。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market.  They are preliminary. World Market Coal The total seaborne coal market increased by 7 Mio t or only 2 % in the first half year.  The growth rate most probably will not be representative for the whole year. We expect a stronger growth of 4 % for the total year. Steam Coal (see table 2) The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents about 7 – 8 % of the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is Indonesia (from the Pacific side). a) Pacific Market supply Indonesia and Vietnam are pushing their exports while China is reducing its exports  by 4 Mio t and increasing its imports by nearly 5 Mio t (steam coal and anthracite),  that means that the other exporters have to fill a gap of 9 Mio t. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply market also saw a disappointing evolution in the first six months of 2006. Columbia and South Africa were well behind their export targets. In the second half year we expect stronger exports from these countries. c) Coking coal supply (see table 3) In total coking coal seaborne exports were shrinking in the first half of the year by 7 Mio t. At best the coking coal market will reach the level of 2005, but most probably will decrease in 2006. China reduced its coking coal imports from the seaborne World Market. Partly still  high stocks of coking coal at the consumer sites have to be reduced to normal levels. The market for coke is picking up in 2006. China is reporting stronger exports because of good availability.d) Price evolution (see table 1) Steam coal The fob-price for South African coal is still floating between 48 - 52 US$/t. The strike in Columbia had only a limited influence on prices. The prices of gas increased further and were enlarging the competitive advantage of international steam coal in the first half year in the European countries.Coking coal / Coke Coking coal was stable at high levels for hard-coking coal. The coke price fob – China increased slightly in July / August but came down again to 150 US$ /t fob China for coal with 12,5% ash-coke. Freight The freight rates were relatively stable until the middle of the year. The benchmark freight rates for cape-sized bulk carrier from Richards Bay to Rotterdam were floating  in a range between 10 – 15 US$/t in the first half year. Since then, freight rates increased and are presently (11/06) standing at 24 US$ / t.