歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2009-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2009-2(2009)

世界市場(chǎng)2009年第一季度，世界硬煤市場(chǎng)多年來(lái)首次下降8%左右。世界煤炭貿易然而，市場(chǎng)表現不同:大西洋蒸汽煤市場(chǎng)減少了出口，太平洋市場(chǎng)略有增加。太平洋市場(chǎng)僅增加了2.2公噸，澳大利亞是唯一的出口國，增加了銷(xiāo)售額(+ 6.7公噸)。中國(‐2.6 Mt)和印度尼西亞(‐2.0 Mt)承受了主要的下降。在大西洋市場(chǎng)上，只有南非(+ 1.3 Mt)和俄羅斯(+ 0.4 Mt)能夠增加出口。整個(gè)大西洋市場(chǎng)縮減了2.8公噸。焦煤供應(見(jiàn)表3)焦煤市場(chǎng)感受到了經(jīng)濟危機的壓力，2009年第一季度下降了30%。中國成為焦煤的凈進(jìn)口國。澳大利亞的出口量比2008年第一季度減少了8.1噸，美國和加拿大的出口量也有所下降。2004年全年焦煤市場(chǎng)總量預計將減少40至50噸左右。價(jià)格演化(見(jiàn)表1)蒸汽煤炭?jì)r(jià)格動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格fob南非目前約60美元/ t,即使在大西洋市場(chǎng)需求保持weak.b)煉焦煤煉焦煤和焦炭?jì)r(jià)格合同價(jià)格也達到歷史高峰在2008年夏天現在回到正常和協(xié)商的價(jià)格預計將低2009/2010。硬焦煤目前的合同價(jià)格為120‐125美元/t，半軟焦煤合同價(jià)格為80‐90美元/t，低揮發(fā)性PCI煤合同價(jià)格為75‐80美元/t。中國出現了一種特殊的情況，它第一次成為凈進(jìn)口國。原因在于，對于港口附近的鋼鐵和電力行業(yè)而言，進(jìn)口煤炭更便宜，因為目前國際煉焦煤價(jià)格低于中國煉焦煤價(jià)格。中國的可樂(lè )市場(chǎng)完全崩潰了;2009年4月，中國出口的焦炭只有約2萬(wàn)噸。在2008年夏季可樂(lè )價(jià)格非常高之后，2008年冬季可樂(lè )價(jià)格暴跌，但目前又在緩慢回升。2009年3月，焦炭的fob中國價(jià)格為420美元/噸5。運費率2008年夏季極高的理查茲灣—鹿特丹運費率在12月降至5美元/噸，目前正在協(xié)商17至18美元/噸。由于全球航運能力不斷增強，價(jià)格預計將保持低位。盡管如此，五月初，理查茲貝阿拉的運價(jià)在今年早些時(shí)候的極低水平之上開(kāi)始上漲。

WORLD MARKET For the first time in many years, the World market for hard coal fell by some 8 % during the first quarter 2009.   WORLD COAL TRADE 1. STEAM COAL (see Table 2) Nevertheless, markets behaved differently: whilst the Atlantic steam coal market decreased exports, the Pacific market increased slightly.   b) Pacific Market The Pacific market increased by only 2.2 Mt with Australia being the only exporter, increasing sales (+ 6.7 Mt). China (‐  2.6 Mt) and Indonesia (‐  2.0 Mt) bore the main decreases. b) Atlantic Market supply On the Atlantic market, only South Africa (+ 1.3 Mt) and Russia (+ 0.4 Mt) could increase exports. The total Atlantic market shrunk by 2.8 Mt.  2. COKING COAL SUPPLY (see Table 3) The coking coal market felt the burden of the economic crisis and dropped by 30 % during the first quarter 2009. China became a net importer for coking coal. Australia exported 8.1 Mt less than during the first quarter 2008 and the US and Canada also recorded an export decrease. The total coking coal market is expected to decrease by some 40 to 50 Mt for the entire year 2009.4. PRICE EVOLUTION (see Table 1) a) Steam Coal Prices The steam coal prices fob South Africa are currently around 60 US$/t, even though the demand on the Atlantic market stays weak.b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Contract prices for coking coal which also reached historic peaks during the 2008 summer are now coming back to normal and the negotiated prices for 2009/2010 are expected to be low. Hard coking coal is currently contracted at 120‐125 US$/t, semi‐soft coking coal at 80‐ 90 US$/t and low‐volatile PCI coal at 75‐80 US$/t.   A special situation was observed in China, who became for the first time a net importer. The reason was that for the steel and electricity industries, located near the harbours, it was cheaper to import coal because international coking coal prices are currently lower than Chinese coking coal prices. The Chinese coke market totally collapsed; in April 2009 there were only some 20.000 t of coke exported. After the very high coke prices in summer 2008 the prices collapsed in winter 2008 but are currently again picking up slowly. In March 2009 the coke price fob‐China was 420 US$/t.5. FREIGHT RATES The extremely high freight rates Richards Bay‐Rotterdam during the 2008 summer came down to 5 US$/t in December and are currently being negotiated at 17 to 18 US$/t. Due to the increasing shipping capacities worldwide, prices are expected to stay low. At the beginning of May, the freight rates Richards Bay–ARA nevertheless started to increase above the very low levels seen earlier in the year.