歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2011-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2012-2(2012)

世界煤炭市場(chǎng)發(fā)展去年(2011年)全球硬煤產(chǎn)量達到6.960萬(wàn)噸，其中動(dòng)力煤6.050噸，焦煤910噸。全球海運硬煤貿易達到978噸，其中蒸汽煤739噸，煉焦煤239噸。2012年上半年，海運硬煤貿易總量為515噸，其中蒸汽煤380噸，焦煤135噸。這六個(gè)月的數字當然是初步的。去年的初步數據尤其不準確，主要是因為來(lái)自印度尼西亞和世界其他地區的無(wú)效數據。一些噸數被計算兩次，非法開(kāi)采的煤炭被部分計算在合法開(kāi)采和出售的煤炭之下。運價(jià)的壓力仍在繼續，來(lái)自歐洲、美國和中國的煤炭需求并不大，由于經(jīng)濟停滯，中國的煤炭使用量略有下降。還有一些情況是在A(yíng)RA港口交貨比在Richards Bay便宜。這種情況非常不健康，許多船主破產(chǎn)了。只要交易者通過(guò)談判達成長(cháng)期合約，這種情況就不會(huì )那么嚴重。中國焦炭的價(jià)格也在下降，Metcoal的價(jià)格在2011年小幅上漲后預計也會(huì )下降。碳價(jià)碳價(jià)并沒(méi)有顯示出任何真正的發(fā)展，反映了一種不符合歐盟委員會(huì )(European Commission)要求的市場(chǎng)行為?，F在的問(wèn)題是，對煤炭來(lái)說(shuō)，是保持較低的歐盟碳排放交易體系(EU ETS)價(jià)格更好，還是用(更高的)碳排放稅來(lái)取代歐盟的碳排放交易體系。在EURACOAL看來(lái)，改變EUETS的工作方式是非法的，因為歐盟的ETS只有在達成國際協(xié)議后才能修改，而事實(shí)并非如此。歐洲煤炭市場(chǎng)歐盟2012年上半年硬煤產(chǎn)量略有增加，褐煤產(chǎn)量也有所增加。進(jìn)口方面有很大的增長(cháng)，這是由于國際煤炭?jì)r(jià)格下降。在英國，2012年上半年發(fā)電站的煤炭供應比2011年上半年增加了36%，而天然氣供應下降了33%。由于英國電力系統的高度靈活性，煤炭?jì)r(jià)格低，天然氣價(jià)格高，碳排放價(jià)格低，煤炭在發(fā)電中所占的份額達到41%。然而，從月度統計數據來(lái)看，煤炭投入具有很強的季節性，但從絕對數量來(lái)看，煤炭占比高于天然氣占比。由于本土煤炭產(chǎn)量下降了9%，進(jìn)口增加了51%，但在這里，供應結構又經(jīng)歷了季節性變化。主要供應國為俄羅斯(29%)、哥倫比亞(18%)和美國(15%)。德國2012年前兩個(gè)季度的硬煤總消費量略有增加，達到29.4萬(wàn)噸/年。由于相對較低的硬煤價(jià)格和較低的二氧化碳價(jià)格，用硬煤發(fā)電增加了8%，而煉焦煤的消耗由于鋼鐵工業(yè)的衰退下降了6%。普羅斯普焦煤廠(chǎng)被賣(mài)給了阿塞洛-米塔爾。在硬煤消費總量中，國產(chǎn)煤占650萬(wàn)噸，比前一年減少了近7%，因為國產(chǎn)煤的生產(chǎn)必須遵循關(guān)閉計劃的決定。進(jìn)口與上年持平。德國硬煤部門(mén)目前雇用約19.300人，包括兼職工人和培訓生。在波蘭，在下西里西亞盆地和上西里西亞盆地以及盧布林盆地的143個(gè)地點(diǎn)發(fā)現了硬煤礦床，其中48個(gè)正在開(kāi)采，占煤炭?jì)α康?68.5億噸。然而，煤炭產(chǎn)量在過(guò)去10年里大幅下降，主要原因是對新礦的投資不足。今天,硬煤炭行業(yè)雇傭了114200人,Kompania W?glowa 15礦山最大的公司。2012年2月，西班牙首相拉霍伊(Rajoy)領(lǐng)導的保守派政府應競爭事務(wù)專(zhuān)員阿爾穆尼亞(Almunia)的要求，向歐盟委員會(huì )提交了一份礦山關(guān)閉計劃。該計劃顯示，2012年補貼減少了10%。然而，政府在4月份的預算中宣布削減63%，將2012年的煤炭補貼從2011年的301歐元削減至1.11億歐元。作為回應，礦工們開(kāi)始了一場(chǎng)無(wú)限期的罷工。6月18日，煤礦所在的9個(gè)省份舉行了大罷工和抗議活動(dòng)。碳聯(lián)盟和執政黨的政客們正在尋求暫時(shí)的解決方案，以避免這些地區更高的失業(yè)率。德國2012年上半年的一次能源消費中，可再生能源占比顯著(zhù)上升(+ 9.4%)，核能占比下降幅度更大(- 18.3%)。褐煤的比重增加了6.7%。在波蘭，已查明約150個(gè)褐煤礦床，代表140億噸的可開(kāi)采儲量。在捷克共和國，煤炭和褐煤的產(chǎn)量在過(guò)去幾年中一直保持穩定。在希臘，政府的2010年能源政策仍然有效:到2020年，不使用核能，不使用CCS和40%的可再生電力。保加利亞2020年能源戰略的目標是保障供應安全，實(shí)現該國的可再生能源目標，提高能源效率，在保護消費者的同時(shí)發(fā)展有競爭力的能源市場(chǎng)。匈牙利經(jīng)濟形勢依然嚴峻，2012年第一季度經(jīng)濟出現收縮，對電力消費產(chǎn)生了影響，但仍低于危機前水平。在斯洛文尼亞，褐煤在發(fā)電方面發(fā)揮并將繼續發(fā)揮重要作用:近三分之一的電力來(lái)自褐煤，另外三分之一來(lái)自水電，最后三分之一來(lái)自核能。斯洛伐克報告說(shuō)，由于經(jīng)濟危機，失業(yè)率繼續上升。盡管如此，由于強勁的經(jīng)濟活動(dòng)，GDP趨勢仍然相當積極(+ 4.72%)。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Last year’s (2011) global hard coal production reached 6.960 Mt of which 6.050 Mt  was steam coal and 910 Mt coking coal. Global seaborne hard coal trade reached  978 Mt, of which 739 Mt was steam coal and 239 Mt coking coal. In the first half of  2012, total seaborne hard coal trade amounted to 515 Mt, of which 380 Mt was  steam coal and 135 Mt coking coal. These six-month figures are of course  preliminary. Last year’s preliminary figures were particularly inexact, due mainly to  non-valid data from Indonesia and other parts of the world. Some tonnages were  counted twice, and illegally mined coal was partly counted under legally mined and  sold coal.  FREIGHT RATES The pressure on freight rates is still on-going, there is no big coal demand from Europe  and the USA and also China were slightly decreasing their coal use due to economic  stagnation. There were again situations where delivered coal at ARA ports was cheaper than the price at Richards Bay. This situation is very unhealthy and many  ship owners went bankrupt. This situation was not as dramatic as long as traders  negotiated long-term contracts. The price for Chinese coke was going down as well  and Metcoal prices are also expected to decrease after a slight increase in 2011. CARBON PRICES The carbon price does not show any real development, reflecting a market  behaviour which does not satisfy the European Commission. The question now is, if it  would be better for coal to keep the low EU ETS price or to replace EU ETS by a  (higher) carbon tax. In the opinion of EURACOAL it would be illegal to change the  working of the EUETS, as the EU ETS can only then be modified, when an international  agreement is reached, which is not the case. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET EU hard coal production in the first half of 2012 slightly increased, as well as lignite  output. A big increase was recorded on the import side, which is due to decreasing  international coal prices. HARD COAL In the United Kingdom, coal supply to power stations in the first half of 2012 increased  by 36 % compared to the first half of 2011, whereas gas fell by 33 %. Due to the very  high flexibility of the UK power system, low coal prices, high gas prices and also low  carbon prices, the share of coal in power generation totalled 41 %. Nevertheless,  coal input is very seasonal when looking at monthly statistics but in absolute terms,  coal share increased against gas share. As indigenous coal production decreased  by 9 %, imports rose by 51 % but here again, the supply structure underwent seasonal  variations. Major suppliers were Russia (29 %), Colombia (18 %) and the USA (15 %). Total German hard coal consumption in the first two quarters 2012 slightly increased  to 29.4 Mtce. Power generation from hard coal increased by 8 % due to relatively  low hard coal prices and low CO2 prices but coking coal consumption fell by 6 %  due to the declining steel industry. The coking coal plant Prosper was sold to Arcelor  Mittal. Of the total hard coal consumption, the share of domestic coal represented  6.5 Mtce, almost 7 % less than in the previous year as indigenous coal production has  to follow the closure plan decisions. Imports stayed at the same level as the previous  year. The German hard coal sector employs currently some 19.300 persons, including  part time workers and trainees.  In Poland, hard coal deposits are found in the lower and the upper Silesian basins  and in the Lublin basin at 143 sites of which 48 are being exploited, accounting for  16.85 billion tonnes of coal reserves. Nevertheless coal production strongly declined  during the last ten years, mainly due to a lack of investment in new mines. Today, the  hard coal industry employs 114,200 people, Kompania W?glowa being the biggest  company with 15 mines. In February 2012 the Spanish conservative Government of Prime Minister Rajoy submitted a mine closure plan to the Commission, as requested by the Competition  Commissioner, Mr. Almunia. This plan showed subsidies reduced by 10% in 2012.  However, in the Government’s April budget, a reduction of 63% was announced,  reducing coal subsidies to €111 million for 2012, from the €301 paid in 2011. In  response, miners began an indefinite strike. On 18 June, there was a general strike  and protests in the nine provinces where coal is mined. Carbunin and politicians  from the ruling party are seeking for temporary solutions to avoid even higher  unemployment rates in these regions.LIGNITE Germany’s primary energy consumption for the first half of 2012 showed an  important increase in the renewables share (+ 9.4 %) and an even more important  decrease in the share of nuclear (- 18.3 %). The share of lignite increased by 6.7 %. In Poland, some 150 lignite deposits have been identified representing 14 billion  tonnes of mineable reserves. In the Czech Republic, coal and lignite production has stayed stable over the last  years. In Greece the Government’s 2010 energy policy remains in place: no nuclear, no  CCS and 40% renewable electricity by 2020. The Bulgarian energy strategy for 2020 aims to guarantee security of supply, to attain  the country’s renewables targets, to increase energy efficiency and to develop a  competitive energy market whilst protecting consumers. Hungary is still facing a difficult economic situation and the economy contracted in  the first quarter of 2012 which had an impact on power consumption, this being still  lower than before the crisis. In Slovenia, lignite plays and will continue to play an important role for power  generation: almost one third of electricity is produced from lignite, another third from  hydro and the final third from nuclear. Slovakia reports a high unemployment rate which continues to rise due to the  economic crisis. GDP trends are nevertheless quite positive (+ 4.72%) due to strong  economic activity.