歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2011-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2011-1(2011)

雖然2010年的數據還只是初步的，但下面描述的總體趨勢是準確的。1990年至2010年間，全球硬煤產(chǎn)量增長(cháng)了85%，接近6.5億噸，其中5.7億噸是蒸汽煤，0.8億噸是焦煤。過(guò)去10年，煤炭使用量的增長(cháng)一直由中國主導。世界煤炭貿易海運硬煤貿易初步數據顯示，從2000年到2010年增長(cháng)了84%，2010年達到971噸(蒸汽煤726噸，焦煤245噸，分別同比增長(cháng)9%和25%)。日本再次成為全球最大的煤炭進(jìn)口國，進(jìn)口量約為185噸。2010年，中國的進(jìn)口量再次飆升至166噸，同比增長(cháng)31%，成為全球第二大煤炭進(jìn)口國，對煤炭的需求顯然沒(méi)有限制。韓國和臺灣緊隨其后，分別為119公噸和63公噸。澳大利亞301噸,主要出口國無(wú)煙煤(33%的市場(chǎng)份額),緊隨其后的是印尼的出口激增57噸到290噸(+ 24%)和俄羅斯90噸。蒸汽煤炭海運動(dòng)力煤貿易增長(cháng)了62噸與前一年相比,從太平洋市場(chǎng)需求的主要推動(dòng)力。歐洲和美國仍然受到經(jīng)濟危機的影響，它們的蒸汽煤需求仍然很低。太平洋市場(chǎng)的主要供應商是印度尼西亞(+60公噸)和南非(+13公噸)，以及大西洋市場(chǎng)的哥倫比亞(+6公噸)。南非向大西洋市場(chǎng)的出口量減少了9噸，俄羅斯減少了5噸，兩者都傾向于向亞洲市場(chǎng)出口。他們在歐洲市場(chǎng)留下的供應缺口，很大程度上是由哥倫比亞的煤炭填補的。自2007年以來(lái)，焦煤市場(chǎng)首次恢復強勁增長(cháng)，產(chǎn)量增加了49噸，主要的市場(chǎng)參與者是澳大利亞(增加24噸)和美國(增加17噸)。中國對海運焦煤的需求大幅下降，因為中國依賴(lài)蒙古通過(guò)鐵路運輸的焦煤。2010年全球粗鋼產(chǎn)量為1.4億噸，較2009年增長(cháng)15%，大多數地區的產(chǎn)量都有所增加。從1990年到2008年夏季達到高峰之前，向NW歐洲出口的硬煤價(jià)格在很長(cháng)一段時(shí)間里有小幅但穩定的增長(cháng)。即使在隨后的暴跌之后，價(jià)格也普遍高于前幾年。2011年初的價(jià)格約為130美元/噸，部分原因是昆士蘭的洪水，部分原因是歐洲非常寒冷的冬季天氣。另一方面，隨著(zhù)新的散貨船的出現，南非的運價(jià)自2008年的峰值以來(lái)略有下降。正如在以前的報告中所觀(guān)察到的那樣，價(jià)格是不可預測的，沒(méi)有人能預見(jiàn)它們未來(lái)的演變。2010年煉焦煤的現貨價(jià)格在200-215美元/噸離岸價(jià)之間波動(dòng)。如今，鐵礦石價(jià)格基本上按季度收縮，新興的現貨市場(chǎng)也變得越來(lái)越重要;分析師預測，2011年的合約價(jià)格可能達到400美元/噸。美元疲軟使從美國向歐洲進(jìn)口煤炭更具吸引力。中國焦炭的現貨價(jià)格仍然很高，年底時(shí)達到近500美元/噸，由于需求強勁，預計未來(lái)價(jià)格和煉焦煤價(jià)格都將保持高位。2011年初澳大利亞的洪水將是推動(dòng)價(jià)格上漲的另一個(gè)因素。這肯定會(huì )對國際鋼鐵行業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響。鋼鐵行業(yè)是焦炭和煉焦煤的最大客戶(hù)。由于精心準備，增加了供應的焦煤，一些蒸汽煤礦有可能銷(xiāo)售煉焦混合煤。由于焦煤的交易量相對較低，焦煤市場(chǎng)將不可避免地保持波動(dòng)和不可預測，往往會(huì )出現延遲的反應，比如昆士蘭洪災。這僅僅是由于這樣一個(gè)事實(shí):許多客戶(hù)在價(jià)格高企時(shí)，在談判新的、更有利的合同之前，會(huì )首先使用他們的庫存。對歐洲來(lái)說(shuō)，一個(gè)值得注意的情況是，南非等主要蒸汽煤出口國向印度和中國出售的煤炭越來(lái)越多，價(jià)格也高于歐盟市場(chǎng)上的價(jià)格。亞洲現在傾向于決定世界價(jià)格，只要亞洲經(jīng)濟繁榮，這種趨勢就會(huì )持續下去。運費率分析顯示，波羅的海干散貨運價(jià)指數、理查茲灣-亞拉運費率和從其他地方運往亞拉港口的硬煤現貨運費率(好角型)之間存在明顯的相關(guān)性。2010年的運價(jià)仍然很低，例如理查茲灣-阿拉航線(xiàn)的指示性?xún)r(jià)格為8-14美元/噸，這對航運公司造成了傷害，一些公司破產(chǎn)，另一些公司以購買(mǎi)價(jià)格的一半出售新收購的船只。它還對運費產(chǎn)生了奇怪的影響，即使是非常不同的路線(xiàn)和距離，運費也可能相似。2010年，歐洲的到岸價(jià)格再一次低于理查茲灣的離岸價(jià)，這表明煤炭在這條曾經(jīng)重要的航線(xiàn)上缺乏運輸?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，托運人的情況并不健康，但無(wú)論如何，這是自由市場(chǎng)的必然結果。與煤炭?jì)r(jià)格和運價(jià)不同，碳價(jià)幾乎沒(méi)有波動(dòng)，幾乎沒(méi)有交易機會(huì )。

WORLD MARKET Whilst 2010 figures are still preliminary, the general trends described below are  accurate.  Global world hard coal production between 1990 and 2010 increased by an  enormous 85%, reaching close to 6.5 Gt, of which 5.7 Gt was steam coal and 0.8 Gt  was coking coal. Over the last decade, growth in coal use has been dominated by  China.  WORLD COAL TRADE Preliminary figures on seaborne hard coal trade show an increase from 2000 to 2010  of 84%, reaching 971 Mt in 2010 (726 Mt steam coal and 245 Mt coking coal, 9% and  25% year-on-year increases respectively).  Japan was again the world’s largest coal importer with approximately 185 Mt.  China’s imports again surged ahead in 2010 to reach 166 Mt, a 31% annual increase  and making it the world’s second largest importer with apparently no limit to its  appetite for coal. Korea and Taiwan were the next most significant importers: 119 Mt  and 63 Mt respectively. Australia, with 301 Mt, was the main exporter of hard coal (a  33 % market share), closely followed by Indonesia whose exports surged by 57 Mt to  290 Mt (+24%), and Russia with 90 Mt. STEAM COAL Seaborne steam coal trade increased by 62 Mt compared with the previous year,  the major driver being demand from the Pacific market. Europe and the USA, still  suffering from the consequences of the economic crisis, saw their steam coal  demand remain low. Major suppliers on the Pacific market were Indonesia (+60 Mt)  and South Africa (+13 Mt), and Colombia on the Atlantic market (+6 Mt). South  Africa exported 9 Mt less to the Atlantic market and Russia 5 Mt less, both preferring  to orientate their exports to Asian markets. The supply gap they left on the European  market was largely covered by Colombian coal.  COKING COAL For the first time since 2007, the coking coal market returned to strong growth and  recorded an increase of 49 Mt, major players being Australia (+24 Mt) and the USA  (+17 Mt). Chinese demand for seaborne coking coal significantly decreased, as  China relied on coking coal from Mongolia, transported by rail. World crude steel  production was 1.4 Gt for 2010, an increase of 15% on 2009, with increased output in  most regions.  HARD COAL PRICES Spot steam coal prices to NW Europe followed a slight but stable increase over a  long period since 1990, until the sharp peak in the summer of 2008. Even after the  subsequent slump, prices have been generally higher than in previous years. The  prices of around 130 US$/t in early 2011 have been partly due to floods in  Queensland, and partly due to the very cold winter weather in Europe. Freight rates  from South Africa, on the other hand, have fallen slightly since the 2008 peak, as new  bulk carriers have become available. As observed in previous reports, prices are  unpredictable and nobody can foresee their future evolution.  Spot prices for coking coal varied in 2010 between 200-215 US$/t fob. Prices are now  mostly contracted on a quarterly basis, with an emerging spot market also becoming  more important; analysts predict that contracts for 2011 could reach 400 US$/t. The  weak US$ has made importing coal from the US to Europe more attractive. Spot prices for Chinese coke remained very high, reaching almost 500 US$/t by the  year end, and prices are expected to remain high in the future, along with prices for  coking coal, due to strong demand. The floods in Australia in early 2011 will be an additional factor pushing prices up. This will certainly have an impact on the  international iron and steel industry, the biggest customer for coke and coking coal.  Some steam coal mines have the possibility to sell coking coal blends, thanks to  careful preparation, increasing the coking coal on offer. Being traded in relatively  low quantities, the coking coal market will inevitably stay volatile and unpredictable,  often with a delayed response, as was observed for example with the Queensland  floods. This is simply due to the fact that many customers will first use their stocks  when prices are high, before negotiating new and hopefully more favourable  contracts.  A noteworthy situation for Europe is the move by major steam coal exporters, such as  South Africa, to sell more and more coal to India and China at higher prices than are  available on the EU market. Asia now tends to set world prices and this will continue  for as long as the Asian economies are booming.FREIGHT RATES Analysis shows a clear correlation between the Baltic Dry Index, Richards Bay – ARA  freight rates, and spot freight rates (capesize) for hard coal delivered to ARA ports  from elsewhere. Freight rates remained low in 2010, e.g. an indicative 8–14 $US/t on  the Richards Bay – ARA route, which is hurting shipping companies, with some going  bankrupt and others selling their newly acquired vessels for as little as half their  purchase price. It is also having a curious affect on freight rates, which can be similar  even for very different routes and distances. Once again in 2010, European cif prices  dropped below Richards Bay fob prices, indicating a lack of coal movements along  this once important route. Overall, the situation for shippers is not healthy, but is,  nevertheless, the proper outcome of a free market.  CARBON PRICES Unlike coal prices and freight rates, carbon prices have shown little or no volatility,  leaving very few trading opportunities.