歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2008-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2008-3(2008)

世界市場(chǎng)的一些數據是初步的。然而，所描述的一般趨勢是正確的。世界海運煤炭市場(chǎng)增加了3百萬(wàn)桶。與2007年前三季度相比。2008年1-9月，鋼鐵行業(yè)運行良好，歐洲蒸汽煤需求疲軟，亞洲穩定。1。動(dòng)力煤(見(jiàn)表2)a)太平洋市場(chǎng)供應2008年第一季度供方供應疲軟。澳大利亞的動(dòng)力煤出口將增加10個(gè)工廠(chǎng)。由于大雨，印尼未能實(shí)現其出口目標。越南停止向中國非法出口煤炭。這筆交易的金額估計為6-8百萬(wàn)美元。t / a。在需求方面，日本和韓國的煤炭需求高于2007年。亞洲的供需平衡，價(jià)格正在下跌。b)大西洋市場(chǎng)供給大西洋供給側也在減少。南非、波蘭、委內瑞拉和俄羅斯減少了煤炭出口，哥倫比亞和美國增加了煤炭出口。歐洲的需求面很弱，許多國家的煤炭需求量比2007年還要少。2. 焦煤供應(見(jiàn)表3)焦煤供應情況有所改善。澳大利亞的生產(chǎn)受到大規模洪水、港口配額和春季推遲鐵路改善的嚴重影響，但現在這些問(wèn)題都得到了解決。澳大利亞的出口達到了2007年1-9月的水平。烏克蘭和印度對來(lái)自世界市場(chǎng)的更多焦煤需求強勁。美國和加拿大出口了更多的食煤。2008年1-9月，全球鋼鐵需求也保持在高位，但第四季度有所減弱。3.價(jià)格演變(見(jiàn)表1)a)動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格南非動(dòng)力煤(6000 kcal/kg NAR)的到岸價(jià)ARA現貨價(jià)格在今年第一季度出現了爆炸性增長(cháng)。從2007年8月開(kāi)始，出現了急劇增長(cháng)。自2008年9月以來(lái)，房?jì)r(jià)跌得非常厲害。金融危機和全球經(jīng)濟增速的下降，使商品價(jià)格呈現下降趨勢。b)煉焦煤和焦炭的價(jià)格半軟煉焦煤和PCI-coal的價(jià)格以同樣的速度上漲，當然比動(dòng)力煤的價(jià)格要高得多。焦炭?jì)r(jià)格(含灰分12.5%)是在鋼鐵行業(yè)減產(chǎn)的背景下大幅下降的。離岸價(jià)仍然很高，但已從去年11月的近800美元/噸降至450美元/噸。運費率運費率處于極高的水平。盡管散貨船數量大幅增加，而且幾乎沒(méi)有報廢，但貨運價(jià)格仍然居高不下。每噸運輸距離的增加、滯期費的增加以及燃料價(jià)格的上漲都推高了運費?，F在一切都結束了。11月份，好望角型貨輪的理查茲灣基準運費從50美元/噸降至6.50美元/噸。

WORLD MARKET Some figures are preliminary. Nevertheless, the general tendencies described are correct.  World Market Coal The world seaborne coal market increased by 3 Mio. t compared to the first three quarters 2007.  In the period 1-9 2008 the steel industry was running well, steam coal demand in Europe was weak, in  Asia stable.  1. Steam Coal (see table 2)  a) Pacific Market supply The supply side was weak in the first quarter of 2008. Australia could increase its steam coal exports  by 10 mill. t, Indonesia failed to achieve its export targets because of heavy rainfalls. Vietnam stopped  the illegal export of coal to China. The amount of this trade is estimated at 6-8 Mio. t/a.  On the demand side, Japan and South Korea were demanding more coal than in 2007. Supply and  demand are balanced in Asia and prices are falling.  b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply side is also decreasing. South Africa, Poland, Venezuela and Russia exported less  coal – Colombia and the USA increased their exports.  The demand side in Europe is weak and in many countries less coal is being demanded than in 2007. 2. Coking coal supply (see Table 3)  The situation for coking coal has improved. Australian production was heavily affected by massive  flooding, port quotas and delayed rail improvements in spring time but now succeeded in overcoming  these problems.  The Australian exports reached the same level as in 1-9 2007. Ukraine and India were showing strong  demand for additional coking coal from the world market. The USA and Canada exported more cooking coal.  The worldwide steel demand also stayed high in 1-9 2008, but the fourth quarter is being weaker. 3. Price evolution (see Table 1)  a) Steam Coal Prices The cif ARA spot price for South African steam coal (6000 kcal/kg NAR) exploded in the first quarter  of the year. From August 2007 onwards, a steep increase occurred. Since September 2008, prices are  falling extremely down. The financial crisis and a worldwide reduction of growth rate had turned the commodity products to a  downward trend.  b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Semi-soft coking coal and PCI-coal prices have risen at the same rate and will of course be much  higher-priced than steam coal.  Coke prices (12.5% ash content) are on the background of production cuts in the steel industry in a  steep fall. Fob prices are still high, but fell from almost 800 US$/t to 450 US$/t in November. 3. Freight rates The freight rates were at extremely high levels. Despite big increases in the bulk-carrier fleet and  nearly no scrapping, the prices for freight remained high. Longer distances per ton, demurrage situations and higher fuel-prices pushed the freight rates up.  This has come to an end now. The Richards Bay benchmark freight rate for capesize vessels fell from  50 US$/t to 6.50 US$/t in November.