歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2011-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2011-2(2011)

本市場(chǎng)報告中的表格反映了2011年上半年已確認的數字，同時(shí)文本給出了前9個(gè)月的一些估計。據初步估計，2011年前三季度全球煤炭貿易較2010年同期增長(cháng)約3%，總量約650-670噸。今年年初發(fā)生的一系列事件對市場(chǎng)造成沖擊，導致價(jià)格出現高企和波動(dòng)，但隨著(zhù)時(shí)間的推移，需求有所放緩，供應趨于穩定。歐洲股市表現良好;因此，如果有必要，歐洲將能夠應付一個(gè)極其寒冷的冬天。中國也在南方港口裝滿(mǎn)了庫存。2011年前9個(gè)月的全球海運動(dòng)力煤貿易估計為490噸(+ 42噸)。太平洋市場(chǎng)的澳大利亞(+ 19公噸)和印度尼西亞(+ 15公噸)以及大西洋市場(chǎng)的美國(+ 11公噸)的出口量大幅增加。需要指出的是，澳大利亞的蒸汽煤主要不在北部開(kāi)采，因此也不經(jīng)昆士蘭供應，昆士蘭是受洪水影響最嚴重的地區。Australian 和 Indonesian 蒸汽 煤 幾乎 完全 被 運往  Asian markets, Indonesia 表演 也 為 India swing-supplier 其 subbituminous 煤炭 需求 特別是 在 哪里大西洋市場(chǎng)上的美國煤炭主要運往歐洲，部分替代了日益向東轉移的南非煤炭。2011年上半年，由于價(jià)格高企，中國的進(jìn)口下降，日本的進(jìn)口也受到地震和海嘯的嚴重影響。這場(chǎng)災難影響了6座燃煤發(fā)電站，今年的進(jìn)口量將減少數百萬(wàn)噸。然而，印度和韓國的經(jīng)濟仍在持續增長(cháng)，而中國的市場(chǎng)依賴(lài)于價(jià)格不太高。歐洲2011年的進(jìn)口也在增加，英國在去年減少庫存后重返市場(chǎng)，德國則因核能發(fā)電量減少而需求增加。2011年前9個(gè)月，全球海運焦煤貿易量估計為160噸，澳大利亞因昆士蘭州洪災出口減少了14噸。港口和鐵路還沒(méi)有完全從洪水中恢復過(guò)來(lái)。美國增加了7噸的出口量，主要出口到歐洲，尤其是德國，那里的鋼鐵工業(yè)再次需要更多的焦煤。2011年前三個(gè)季度，煉焦煤貿易總量下降了約5噸。2011年初，隨著(zhù)歐洲冬季需求的增加和澳大利亞洪水的到來(lái)，煤炭?jì)r(jià)格達到了頂峰。一旦人們意識到洪水對焦煤的影響比蒸汽煤更嚴重，價(jià)格就回落了，因為蒸汽煤有更多的替代供應商。日本地震和海嘯的初步消息傳出后，價(jià)格再次上漲。一旦人們意識到日本的煤炭需求也受到了煤電站和卸貨設施受損的影響，亞洲的煤炭?jì)r(jià)格就回落了。然而，由于德國核電站被關(guān)閉，加上液化天然氣市場(chǎng)供應趨緊，歐洲天然氣價(jià)格仍保持強勁。大西洋市場(chǎng)相對于太平洋市場(chǎng)的總體疲軟表現在以下事實(shí):2011年初，在澳大利亞發(fā)生洪災后，紐卡斯爾(澳大利亞)的離岸價(jià)再次高于運往西北歐洲的離岸價(jià)，但在日本發(fā)生地震和海嘯后，這一情況發(fā)生了逆轉。2011年最后一個(gè)季度，亞洲和大西洋市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格都有所回落;歐洲和印度的需求疲軟導致市場(chǎng)供過(guò)于求，買(mǎi)家一直持觀(guān)望態(tài)度，希望價(jià)格能進(jìn)一步下跌。多年來(lái)，煉焦煤的價(jià)格很大程度上是在年度合同談判中確定的，并受到年度談判中形成的基準價(jià)格的強烈影響。從2010年起，這種做法發(fā)生了變化，主要供應商從2010年4月起開(kāi)始采取季度價(jià)格結算。與此同時(shí)，隨著(zhù)煉焦煤現貨市場(chǎng)的不斷擴大，月度價(jià)格指數也開(kāi)始被引用。2011年初澳大利亞洪災對焦煤價(jià)格的影響最為明顯，因為澳大利亞在該行業(yè)占據主導地位。2011年初，優(yōu)質(zhì)焦煤現貨價(jià)格達到每噸325美元左右。自那以來(lái)，鐵礦石價(jià)格大幅走軟，到年底時(shí)，現貨價(jià)格在每噸240美元左右。 中國的可樂(lè )價(jià)格仍維持在每噸500美元左右，處于歷史高位，但目前銷(xiāo)量很少。運價(jià)目前運價(jià)較低，南非至鹿特丹航線(xiàn)的運價(jià)在每噸10美元左右的相對狹窄區間內交易。船舶供應持續增長(cháng)，2011年干散貨船隊預計增長(cháng)約13%。

WORLD MARKET The tables in the present Market Report reflect the confirmed figures for the first six  months of 2011, whilst the texts give some estimates for the first nine months.  According to first estimates, global coal trade increased in the first three quarters of  2011 compared with the same period in 2010 by some 3%, totalling about 650-670  Mt. A number of events early in the year caused shocks in the market resulting in  some high and volatile prices, but as the year progressed, demand has slackened  and supply has stabilised. Stocks in Europe are healthy; therefore, Europe will be able  to cope even with an extremely cold winter if necessary. China as well filled up its  stocks in the southern ports.  WORLD COAL TRADE STEAM COAL Global seaborne steam coal trade in the first nine months of 2011 is estimated at 490  Mt (+ 42 Mt). Major export increases were observed from Australia (+ 19 Mt) and  Indonesia (+ 15 Mt) on the Pacific market and from the USA (+ 11 Mt) on the Atlantic  market. It is to be noted that Australian steam coal is mainly not extracted in the  north and is therefore not supplied via Queensland, which was most affected by the  floods. Australian and Indonesian steam coal are almost entirely being shipped to  Asian markets, with Indonesia acting also as swing-supplier for India where its subbituminous coals are especially in demand. US coal on the Atlantic market is mainly  shipped to Europe, partly replacing South African coal which is increasingly moving  eastwards. In the first half of 2011 Chinese imports were down in response to high prices, and  Japanese imports were badly affected by the earthquake and tsunami. The disaster  affected six coal-fired power stations and imports will be down by several million  tonnes this year. However, there is continuing growth in India and Korea, and China  plays the market dependent on prices not remaining too high. Europe is also  increasing imports in 2011 with the UK returning to the market after drawing down  stocks last year and Germany seeing increased demand as a result of reduced  nuclear generation. COKING COAL Global seaborne coking coal trade in the first nine months of 2011 is estimated at 160  Mt with Australia having exported 14 Mt less due to the floods in Queensland. Ports  and railway still have not fully recovered from the floods. The USA increased its  exports by 7 Mt, going mainly to Europe and especially Germany, where the steel  industry is again demanding more coking coal. Total coking coal trade fell by some 5  Mt in the first three quarters 2011. HARD COAL PRICES Steam coal prices peaked at the beginning of 2011 first with winter demand in  Europe and then with the Australian floods. Prices fell back once it was realised that  the effect of the floods was more acute on coking than on steam coal, where there  are more alternative suppliers. Prices again moved up on initial news of the  Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Once it was realised that Japanese coal  demand was also affected because of damage to coal power stations and  unloading facilities, Asian prices fell back. European prices, however, remained  strong because of German nuclear stations being taken off line and a tighter  liquefied natural gas market, where supplies were being diverted to Japan. The general weakness of the Atlantic market vis--vis the Pacific was illustrated by  the fact that fob spot prices from Newcastle (Australia) were higher than prices  delivered to North West Europe again early in 2011 following the floods in Australia  but then reversed after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. In the last quarter of  2011 prices have fallen back in both the Asian and Atlantic markets; slacker demand  in Europe and India has sent the market into oversupply, and buyers have been  holding back in the hope of still lower prices.  For many years, pricing for coking coal was largely determined in annual contract  negotiations and has been strongly influenced by the resulting benchmark prices  which emerged during the annual negotiating round. From 2010 this practice  changed, with the major suppliers leading a move to quarterly price settlements  from April 2010. At the same time, with an increasing spot market in coking coal,  monthly price indices are now quoted.  The impact of the Australian floods in early 2011 was felt most keenly in coking prices  because of Australian dominance of the sector, with spot prices for prime coking  coal in early 2011 reaching levels of around $325/tonne. Since then, there has been significant softening in prices with spot levels of around $240/tonne towards the end  of the year. Coke prices from China still remain at around 500 US$/t, at historic peaks, but there  are currently very few sales.  FREIGHT RATES For the time being freight rates remain low, trading in a relatively narrow range  around $10.00 per tonne for the South Africa to Rotterdam route. Vessel supply has  continued to expand, with the dry bulk fleet expected to grow by around 13% in  2011.