2013年世界能源展望world energy outlook2013

能源部門(mén)的許多長(cháng)期信條正在被改寫(xiě)。主要進(jìn)口國正在成為出口國，而長(cháng)期被定義為主要能源出口國的國家也正在成為全球需求增長(cháng)的主要中心。政策和技術(shù)的正確結合證明，經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)、能源需求和與能源有關(guān)的二氧化碳排放之間的聯(lián)系可以被削弱。非常規油氣和可再生能源的崛起正在改變我們對世界能源分布的認識。對于試圖協(xié)調經(jīng)濟、能源和環(huán)境目標的決策者來(lái)說(shuō)，了解支撐能源市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)力至關(guān)重要。那些成功預測全球能源發(fā)展的國家可以獲得優(yōu)勢，而那些未能做到這一點(diǎn)的國家則有可能做出糟糕的政策和投資決策。本期《世界能源展望》（A/E0-2013）研究了到2035年能源和氣候趨勢的不同選擇的影響，提供了可以幫助決策者、行業(yè)和其他利益相關(guān)者在快速變化的能源世界中找到出路的見(jiàn)解。能源需求的重心正在決定性地轉向新興經(jīng)濟體，特別是中國、印度和中東，這些國家推動(dòng)全球能源使用量上升了三分之一。在新的政策情景（WEO-2013的核心情景）中，在印度從2020年起接管增長(cháng)的主要引擎之前，中國在亞洲占據主導地位。東南亞同樣成為一個(gè)不斷擴大的需求中心（2013年10月出版的《世界能源組織特別報告：東南亞能源展望》詳細報道了這一發(fā)展）。中國即將成為最大的石油進(jìn)口國，印度將在20世紀20年代初成為最大的煤炭進(jìn)口國，美國將穩步朝著(zhù)在2035年前從國內資源滿(mǎn)足其所有能源需求的方向邁進(jìn)。這些變化共同代表了從大西洋盆地到亞太地區能源貿易的重新定位。高油價(jià)、地區間天然氣和電價(jià)的持續差異以及許多國家不斷上漲的能源進(jìn)口賬單，都將注意力集中在能源與更廣泛的經(jīng)濟之間的關(guān)系上。能源與發(fā)展之間的聯(lián)系在非洲得到了清楚的說(shuō)明，盡管那里資源豐富，但人均能源使用量不到2035年全球平均水平的三分之一。今天，在世界上13億人中，有近一半的人無(wú)法用上電，而在26億人中，有四分之一的人依靠傳統的生物量做飯。在全球范圍內，化石燃料繼續滿(mǎn)足全球能源需求的主要份額，這對能源、環(huán)境和氣候變化之間的聯(lián)系產(chǎn)生了影響。

Many of the long-held tenets of the energy sector are being rewritten. Major importers are becoming exporters, while countries long-defined as major energy exporters are also becoming leading centres of global demand growth. The right combination of policies and technologies is proving that the links between economic growth, energy demand and energy-related CO2 emissions can be weakened. The rise of unconventional oil and gas and of renewables is transforming our understanding of the distribution of the world's energy resources. Awareness of the dynamics underpinning energy markets is essential for decisionmakers attempting to reconcile economic, energy and environmental objectives. Those that anticipate global energy developments successfully can derive an advantage, while those that fail to do so risk making poor policy and investment decisions. This edition of the World Energy Outlook (\A/E0-2013) examines the implications of different sets of choices for energy and climate trends to 2035, providing insights along the way that can help policymakers, industry and other stakeholders find their way in a fast-changing energy world. The centre of gravity of energy demand is switching decisively to the emerging economies, particularly China, India and the Middle East, which drive global energy use one-third higher. In the New Policies Scenario, the central scenario of WEO-2013, China dominates the picture within Asia, before India takes over from 2020 as the principal engine of growth. Southeast Asia likewise emerges as an expanding demand centre (a development covered in detail in the WEO Special Report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, published in October 2013). China is about to become the largest oil-importing country and India becomes the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. The United States moves steadily towards meeting all of its energy needs from domestic resources by 2035. Together; these changes represent a re-orientation of energy trade from the Atlantic basin to the Asia- Pacific region. High oil prices, persistent differences in gas and electricity prices between regions and rising energy import bills in many countries focus attention on the relationship between energy and the broader economy. The links between energy and development are illustrated clearly in Africa, where, despite a wealth of resources, energy use per capita is less than one-third of the global average in 2035. Africa today is home to nearly half of the 1.3 billion people in the world without access to electricity and one-quarter of the 2.6 billion people relying on the traditional use of biomass for cooking. Globally, fossil fuels continue to meet a dominant share of global energy demand, with implications for the links between energy, the environment and climate change.