印度主要空氣污染源造成的疾病負擔Burden of Disease Attributable to Major Air Pollution Sources in India in 2018

本研究增加的內容?本報告為印度空氣污染的主要來(lái)源提供了可歸因于環(huán)境和預測負擔的第一綜合評估。2015年，來(lái)自多個(gè)主要來(lái)源的顆粒物（PM）的空氣污染約為1.0百萬(wàn)人死亡，約占死亡人數的106%。燃燒源是主要的貢獻者：居民生物污染是印度人負擔的重要因素。居民生物量燃燒占267700。死亡人數，占PM2.5死亡人數的近25%，成為2015年與死亡率相關(guān)的最重要的單一人為來(lái)源。這些負荷估計數不包括因室內暴露于生物質(zhì)燃燒而產(chǎn)生的相當大的額外負荷。煤的燃燒和燃燒也會(huì )對疾病的負擔造成副作用。在2015年，煤炭燃燒造成169300人死亡（15.5%）。農業(yè)廢棄物的露天焚燒造成了66200人（6.1%）的PM2.5死亡。運輸、配送柴油和磚瓦生產(chǎn)重要貢獻者TOPM2.5-可歸因的疾病負擔。2015年，交通運輸造成23100人死亡，分布式柴油造成20400人死亡，磚塊生產(chǎn)造成24100人死亡。?如果不采取行動(dòng)，到2050年，人口暴露量將增加40%以上。評估了三種不同的能源效率和空氣污染控制途徑（情景）。在很少采取額外行動(dòng)的參考情景（REF）中，暴露量從2015年的74 g/m3增加到2050年的106 g/m3。在雄心勃勃的S2情景下，風(fēng)險敞口水平保持在接近2015年的水平。只有在雄心勃勃的S3情景中設想的最積極的減少情況下，預計暴露量才會(huì )以主要方式減少——從2015年到2050年減少近35%，達到約48 g/m3。?如果沒(méi)有行動(dòng)，所有來(lái)源的疾病的未來(lái)負擔都將實(shí)質(zhì)性增長(cháng)2050。隨著(zhù)人口的老齡化和增長(cháng)，使更多的人容易受到空氣污染的影響，盡管預計在S2和S3情景中暴露量會(huì )減少，但疾病負擔預計在未來(lái)會(huì )增加。與2015年近110萬(wàn)人死亡相比，環(huán)境PM2.5造成的死亡預計將上升至360萬(wàn)人，無(wú)需采取行動(dòng)。?侵略性行為可避免近120萬(wàn)人的疾??；所有主要部門(mén)都需要在污染環(huán)境中實(shí)現教育，以減少污染。印度政府已經(jīng)開(kāi)始采取行動(dòng)改善空氣質(zhì)量。該分析表明，與REF情景相比，S3情景下的積極行動(dòng)在2050年可以避免近120萬(wàn)人死亡。這對于減少住宅生物質(zhì)燃燒、燃煤和與人類(lèi)活動(dòng)有關(guān)的粉塵暴露的行動(dòng)尤其如此。 這個(gè)

What This Study Adds ?ThisreportprovidesthefirstcomprehensiveassessmentofthecurrentandpredictedburdensofdiseaseattributabletomajorsourcesofairpollutioninIndia. ?In2015,particulatematter(PM)airpollutionfromseveralmajorsourceswasresponsibleforapproximately1.1milliondeaths,or10.6%ofthetotalnumberofdeathsinIndia.Combustion sources are among the leading contributors: ResidentialbiomassburningisthelargestindividualcontributortotheburdenofdiseaseinIndia.Residential biomass burning was responsible for 267,700 deaths, or nearly 25% of the deaths attributable to PM2.5, making it the most important single anthropogenic source related to mortality in 2015. These burden estimates do not include the considerable additional burden from indoor exposure to biomass burning. Coalcombustionandopenburningalsocontributesubstantiallytodiseaseburden. Coal combustion, roughly evenly split between industrial sources and thermal power plants, was responsible for 169,300 deaths (15.5%) in 2015. The open burning of agricultural residue was responsible for 66,200 (6.1%) PM2.5-attributable deaths. Transport,distributeddiesel,andbrickproductionarealsoimportantcontributorstoPM2.5-attributablediseaseburden. In 2015, transportation contributed 23,100 deaths, distributed diesel contributed 20,400 deaths, and brick production contributed 24,100 deaths. ?Ifnoactionistaken,populationexposurestoPM2.5arelikelytoincreasebymorethan40%by2050.Three different energy efficiency and air pollution control pathways (scenarios) were evaluated. In the reference scenario (REF), in which little additional action is taken, exposures increase from 74 g/m3 in 2015 to 106 g/m3 in 2050. Exposure levels are kept close to 2015 levels under an ambitious S2 scenario. Only under the most active reductions envisioned in the aspirational S3 scenario are exposures projected to be reduced in a major way — by nearly 35% from 2015 to 2050, reaching about 48 g/m3. ?Ifnoactionistaken,thefutureburdenofdiseasefromallsourceswillgrowsubstantiallyby2050. The burden of disease is expected to grow in the future, as the population ages and grows and leaves more people susceptible to air pollution, despite the projected exposure decreases in the S2 and S3 scenarios. Compared with nearly 1.1 million deaths in 2015, deaths attributable to ambient PM2.5 are projected to rise to 3.6 million with no action. ?Aggressiveactioncouldavoidnearly1.2milliondeaths;allmajorsectorswillneedtoachievereductionsinairpollutiontoreducediseaseburden. The Indian government has begun taking actions to improve air quality. This analysis demonstrates that aggressive actions under the S3 scenario could avoid nearly 1.2 million deaths in 2050 compared with the REF scenario. That will be especially true for actions to reduce exposure from residential biomass combustion, coal burning, and dusts related to human activities. 

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