2010年中國風(fēng)電展望2010 CHINA WIND POWER OUTLOOK

一。2009全球風(fēng)電現狀盡管?chē)H金融危機不斷，但全球風(fēng)電行業(yè)繼續快速擴張，實(shí)現了41%的年增長(cháng)率。歐盟、美國和亞洲主導著(zhù)全球風(fēng)電發(fā)展。中國新增裝機容量居世界第一。據全球風(fēng)能理事會(huì )（GWEC）統計，全球風(fēng)電總裝機容量達到158gw，累計增長(cháng)31.9%。全球風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)不僅成為世界能源市場(chǎng)的重要組成部分，而且在拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)和創(chuàng )造就業(yè)機會(huì )方面發(fā)揮著(zhù)越來(lái)越重要的作用。據GWEC統計，全球風(fēng)力發(fā)電裝機總產(chǎn)值已達450億歐元，2009年度工業(yè)用電約占500000。截至2009年底，全球已有100多個(gè)國家開(kāi)始發(fā)展風(fēng)電，17個(gè)國家的累計裝機容量均超過(guò)1千兆瓦。累計裝機容量排名前十的國家是美國、中國、德國、西班牙、印度、意大利、法國、英國、葡萄牙和丹麥。2009年，亞洲成為一個(gè)重要的新市場(chǎng)，超過(guò)了美國和歐洲的水平，主要受到中國和印度的刺激。中國新增裝機容量13.8gw，累計裝機容量25.8gw。2。中國風(fēng)電現狀1）中國風(fēng)資源廣闊，海岸線(xiàn)長(cháng)，風(fēng)能資源豐富。研究表明，中國風(fēng)能開(kāi)發(fā)潛力巨大，陸上和海上風(fēng)能的總可開(kāi)發(fā)容量約為700-1200千兆瓦。其他評估顯示，更高的數字高達2500千兆瓦。因此，風(fēng)電有資源基礎，成為國家未來(lái)能源結構的重要組成部分。與目前五大風(fēng)電大國相比，中國的風(fēng)資源規模接近美國，大大超過(guò)印度、德國和西班牙。東南沿海地區、沿海島嶼和我國北部（東北、北部和西北部）風(fēng)能資源尤為豐富。內陸地區也有一些風(fēng)能資源豐富的地方。海上風(fēng)能資源也很豐富。然而，風(fēng)能資源的地理分布與電力負荷不匹配。我國沿海地區用電負荷大，但風(fēng)能資源匱乏。另一方面，北方風(fēng)能資源豐富，但用電負荷較小。這給風(fēng)電的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來(lái)了困難。2） 市場(chǎng)概況2009年，中國風(fēng)電行業(yè)處于全球領(lǐng)先地位，產(chǎn)能增長(cháng)超過(guò)100%。其累計裝機容量目前居世界第二位。它的新裝機容量是世界上最大的。中國的裝備制造能力也位居世界第一。中國的新增裝機容量和風(fēng)電機組產(chǎn)量約占全球總量的三分之一。2009年，除臺灣省外，中國新安裝的風(fēng)力發(fā)電機組總數為10129臺，裝機容量為13.8gw。因此，中國在新裝置方面超過(guò)了美國。累計裝機容量達到25.8千兆瓦，這是連續第四年裝機容量翻番 3） 產(chǎn)業(yè)和供應鏈中國風(fēng)電設備制造業(yè)發(fā)展迅速，產(chǎn)業(yè)集中度進(jìn)一步增強。目前，國內制造商占中國供應市場(chǎng)的70%左右，并開(kāi)始出口其產(chǎn)品。風(fēng)電設備制造業(yè)明顯分為三個(gè)層次，華銳風(fēng)電、金風(fēng)電、東方電氣（均為全球十大供應商）位列第一，明陽(yáng)、聯(lián)合動(dòng)力、森美公司位列第二。隨后是一系列規模較小的制造商。在國際風(fēng)電發(fā)展趨勢的推動(dòng)下，中國規模較大的風(fēng)電機組制造商也開(kāi)始進(jìn)入大型風(fēng)電設備的競爭。華銳風(fēng)電、Goldwind、XEMC、上海電氣集團和明陽(yáng)都在開(kāi)發(fā)5兆瓦或更大的渦輪機，有望生產(chǎn)出具有競爭力和技術(shù)成熟的機器。然而，該行業(yè)關(guān)注的一個(gè)問(wèn)題是其產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量。普遍認為，中國國內風(fēng)電設備將在2011年和2012年接受最高測試。如果它成功地通過(guò)了這項測試，將意味著(zhù)質(zhì)的飛躍。雖然中國目前已經(jīng)建立了包括所有主要零部件生產(chǎn)商在內的風(fēng)電機組制造供應鏈，但仍缺乏一個(gè)完整的配套服務(wù)網(wǎng)絡(luò )，如認證機構和背景研發(fā)等。4） 近海前景認真調查工作正在致力于中國漫長(cháng)海岸線(xiàn)附近的海上風(fēng)電開(kāi)發(fā)前景。2010年，上海東海大橋第一個(gè)海上項目完成了100兆瓦，其中包括34臺華銳風(fēng)電3兆瓦渦輪機。根據沿海省份編制的規劃，到2020年，海上風(fēng)電裝機容量計劃達到32800兆瓦。5） 中國風(fēng)電場(chǎng)前三大開(kāi)發(fā)商是國電（龍源電氣集團）、大唐和華能。這三家都是大型國有供電公司。大多數投資和項目開(kāi)發(fā)工作由供電公司承擔，供電公司根據國家法律承諾穩步提高其在可再生能源中的比例。6） 截至2009年底，全國共有24個(gè)省、自治區擁有自己的風(fēng)電場(chǎng)。累計裝機容量超過(guò)1000兆瓦的省份有9個(gè)以上，其中超過(guò)2000兆瓦的省份有4個(gè)。內蒙古自治區為主導地區，新增裝機容量5545兆瓦，累計裝機容量9196兆瓦。三。國家能源政策2009年底，中國政府在哥本哈根氣候變化大會(huì )上向國際社會(huì )作出政治承諾，到2020年，非化石能源將滿(mǎn)足中國15%的能源需求。這將需要對未來(lái)清潔能源發(fā)展的規模和速度進(jìn)行前所未有的推動(dòng)，包括對風(fēng)電發(fā)展的新方向。風(fēng)能受到一系列法律法規的鼓勵，最重要的是2005年出臺的《可再生能源法》。本報告包括對本法規和影響風(fēng)力發(fā)電發(fā)展的其他法規的最新變更的詳細信息。1） 風(fēng)電基地是中國政府風(fēng)電承諾的重要組成部分，包括建立7個(gè)“千兆瓦級風(fēng)電基地”。這7個(gè)基地分別位于內蒙古東部和西部、新疆庫木爾、甘肅酒泉、河北酒泉、吉林西部和江蘇近海，每個(gè)基地的裝機容量至少有10千兆瓦。在國家能源局的領(lǐng)導下，2008年開(kāi)始規劃這些基地的發(fā)展，目前進(jìn)展很快。根據規劃，到2020年，總裝機容量將達到138gw，但前提是配套電網(wǎng)建成。一個(gè)重大問(wèn)題是，這些基地大多位于偏遠地區，輸電網(wǎng)薄弱，距離中國主要用電負荷中心較遠。還有一個(gè)問(wèn)題是如何將大量的可變風(fēng)力發(fā)電集成到由不靈活的燃煤電站主導的電網(wǎng)網(wǎng)絡(luò )中。2） 價(jià)格支持機制定價(jià)政策是影響開(kāi)發(fā)商積極投資水平和市場(chǎng)增長(cháng)的關(guān)鍵因素。中國對風(fēng)電的支持機制已經(jīng)從以資本回報率和平均電價(jià)為基礎的價(jià)格，通過(guò)風(fēng)電場(chǎng)開(kāi)發(fā)合同的競爭性招標制度，演變?yōu)橐燥L(fēng)能資源差異為基礎的固定價(jià)格。2009年出臺的固定價(jià)格體系，在將全國劃分為四類(lèi)風(fēng)能資源區的基礎上，確立了陸基風(fēng)電基準價(jià)格。毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，區域性限價(jià)政策的出臺，是我國風(fēng)電發(fā)展的積極一步，正在刺激更強勁的增長(cháng)。

1. Current Status of Global Wind Power In 2009, despite the ongoing international financial crisis,  the global wind power industry continued to expand rapidly,  achieving an annual growth rate of 41%. The European Union,  the USA and Asia dominate global wind power development.  China ranked first in the world for newly installed capacity.  According to statistics compiled by the Global Wind Energy  Council (GWEC), total installed capacity of global wind power  reached 158 GW, a cumulative growth rate of 31.9%. The global wind power industry has not only become  an important part of the world energy market but is  also playing an increasingly important role in stimulating  economic growth and creating employment opportunities.  According to GWEC, the total output value of the installed  capacity of global wind power has already reached 45  billion euros and the number of people employed in the  industry was approximately 500,000 in 2009. By the end of 2009 more than 100 counties around the  world had started developing wind power, and more than  17 countries each had over 1 GW of cumulative installed  capacity. The top ten countries for cumulative installed  capacity were the USA, China, Germany, Spain, India, Italy,  France, Britain, Portugal and Denmark. Asia became an important new market in 2009, exceeding  the levels in both America and Europe and mainly  stimulated by China and India. Newly installed capacity in  China was 13.8 GW and the cumulative installed capacity  reached 25.8 GW. 2. Status of Wind Power in China 1) Wind resources China has a vast land mass and long coastline and is rich  in wind energy resources. Studies show that the potential  for exploiting wind energy in China is enormous, with a  total exploitable capacity for both land-based and offshore  wind energy of around 700-1,200 GW. Other assessments  suggest even higher figures up to over 2,500 GW. Wind  power therefore has the resource basis to become a major  part of the country’s future energy structure. Compared  with the current five major countries for wind power, the extent of wind resources in China is close to the USA and  greatly exceeds India, Germany and Spain. Wind energy resources are particularly abundant in the  southeast coastal regions, the islands off the coast and in the  northern part (northeast, north and northwest) of the country.  There are also some places rich in wind energy in the inland  regions. Offshore wind energy resources are also plentiful. The geographical distribution of wind energy resources is  mismatched with the electrical load, however. The coastal areas  of China have a large electrical load but are poor in wind energy  resources. Wind energy resources are plentiful in the north, on the  other hand, but the electrical load is small. This brings difficulties  for the economic development of wind power.  2) Market overview In 2009, the Chinese wind power industry was a global  leader, increasing its capacity by over 100%. Its cumulative  installed capacity now ranks second in the world. Its  newly installed capacity was the largest in the world. The  country’s equipment manufacturing capability also took  first place in the world. Both the newly installed capacity in  the country and China’s wind turbine output accounted for  roughly a third of the global total.  The total number of newly installed wind turbines in China  in 2009, excluding Taiwan Province, was 10,129, with an  installed capacity of 13.8 GW. China thus overtook the  USA for new installations. The cumulative installed capacity  reached 25.8 GW, in the fourth consecutive year that had  seen a doubling in capacity 3) Industry and Supply Chain China’s wind turbine equipment manufacturing industry  has developed rapidly and its industrial concentration has  further intensified. Domestic manufacturers now account  for about 70% of China’s supply market and are beginning  to export their products. The manufacturing industry for wind power equipment is  clearly divided into three levels, with Sinovel, Goldwind and  Dongfang Electric (all among the world’s top ten suppliers)  in the first ranking and Mingyang, United Power and XEMC  in the second. These are followed by a range of smaller manufacturers.  Driven by the development trends in international wind power,  the larger Chinese wind turbine manufacturers have also  begun to enter the competition for large-scale wind power  equipment. Sinovel, Goldwind, XEMC, Shanghai Electric  Group and Mingyang are all developing 5 MW or larger  turbines and can be expected to produce competitive and  technically mature machines. One concern for the industry,  however, is the quality of its products. The general view is  that China’s domestic wind power equipment will receive  its supreme test in 2011 and 2012. If it passes this test  successfully, it will mean a qualitative leap forward. Although China now has an established wind turbine  manufacturing supply chain, including producers of all  the main parts, it is still lacking a fully developed network  of ancillary services, such as certification bodies and  background research and development. 4) Offshore prospects Serious investigation effort is being committed to the  prospects for offshore wind development around China’s  long coastline. In 2010 the first offshore project was  completed – 100 MW at Shanghai's Donghai Bridge, with  34 Sinovel 3 MW turbines. According to plans prepared  by the coastal provinces, the installed capacity of offshore  wind power is planned to reach 32,800 MW by 2020. 5) Developers The top three developers of wind parks in China are  Guodian (Longyuan Electric Group), Datang and Huaneng.  All three are large state-owned power supply companies.  Most investment and project development work is  undertaken by power supply companies who have a  commitment under national law to steadily increase their  proportion of renewable energy.  6) Geographical Distribution By the end of 2009 a total of 24 provinces and autonomous  regions in China had their own wind farms. There were over  nine provinces with a cumulative installed capacity of more  than 1,000 MW, including four provinces exceeding 2,000  MW. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is the lead region, with newly installed capacity of 5,545 MW and a  cumulative installed capacity of 9,196 MW. 3. National Energy Policy At the end of 2009, the Chinese government made a  political commitment to the international community at  the Copenhagen Conference on climate change that nonfossil energy would satisfy 15% of the country’s energy  demand by 2020. This will require an unprecedented  boost to the scale and pace of future clean energy  development, including a new orientation towards wind  power development. Wind energy is encouraged by a  range of laws and regulations, the most important being  the Renewable Energy Law, originally introduced in 2005.  This report includes details of the latest changes to this and  other statutes affecting wind power development. 1) Wind Power Bases A major part of the Chinese government’s commitment to  wind power involves the creation of seven “GW-scale wind  power bases”. The seven bases, each with a potential for  at least 10 GW of installed capacity, are located in the east  and west of Inner Mongolia, Kumul in Xinjiang, Jiuquan in  Gansu, Hebei, the western part of Jilin, and the shallow  seas off Jiangsu.  Planning the development of these bases started in 2008  under the leadership of the National Energy Bureau and is  progressing fast. According to the plan, they will contain  a total installed capacity of 138 GW by 2020, but only if  the supporting grid network is established. A significant  problem is that many of these bases are located in remote  areas with a weak transmission grid and at a long distance  from China’s main electricity load centers. There is also the  issue of how large quantities of variable wind power are  integrated into a grid network dominated by inflexible coalfired power stations.  2) Price Support Mechanisms Pricing policy is a key factor affecting the level of active  investment by developers and market growth. China’s  support mechanism for wind power has evolved from a  price based on return on capital and the average price of electricity through a competitive bidding system for wind  park development contracts to a fixed price with variations  based on differences in wind energy resources. Introduced in 2009, the fixed price system establishes a  benchmark price for land-based wind power based on  dividing the country into four categories of wind energy  resource areas. There is no doubt that the introduction of  the regional fixed price policy has been a positive step in  the development of wind power in China and is stimulating  stronger growth.