歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2015-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2015-1(2015)

世界煤炭市場(chǎng)發(fā)展——世界煤炭生產(chǎn)和海運貿易重要決定2014年全球煤炭產(chǎn)量持平,為72億噸,動(dòng)力煤稍微減少從6300噸到6200噸和煉焦煤1000噸增加100噸。全球煤炭貿易全球海運無(wú)煙煤貿易在2014年估計為200噸,其中900噸動(dòng)力煤和煉焦煤300噸。煤炭?jì)r(jià)格和趨勢動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格正在下降，這種趨勢可能會(huì )繼續下去。煤炭?jì)r(jià)格下跌的主要原因是需求下降導致的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩，這是亞洲(尤其是中國)GDP增速放緩的結果，也是全球經(jīng)濟形勢疲軟的結果。2014年，捷克共和國的硬煤產(chǎn)量為8.7噸，較2013年增長(cháng)非常小。1987年以來(lái)，除了過(guò)去兩年產(chǎn)量穩定外，中國的硬煤產(chǎn)量一直在逐步下降。在德國，按照到2018年關(guān)閉所有硬煤礦的計劃，2016年將只有兩家煤礦繼續運營(yíng)。2014年，隨著(zhù)一個(gè)新的4米厚煤層的開(kāi)采，煤炭產(chǎn)量從2013年的7.55 Mt小幅增加到7.64 Mt。波蘭的硬煤產(chǎn)量從2013年的76.5噸下降到2014年的72.5噸。銷(xiāo)售也有所下降，從2013年的77.5噸下降到2014年的70.3噸(從227億噸下降到194億噸)。雖然學(xué)徒的數量仍然健康，但是工人的數量從2013年的10800人減少到了2014年的103000人。據估計，2014年西班牙的煤炭產(chǎn)量為3.9萬(wàn)噸。其中第一種燃料是核能，占22%，其次是風(fēng)能，占20%。天然氣發(fā)電占總發(fā)電量的8.5%，是過(guò)去五年來(lái)的最低水平，而煤炭發(fā)電占總發(fā)電量的16%。聯(lián)合王國英國繼續慢慢地從經(jīng)濟衰退中恢復過(guò)來(lái),但有人擔心,盡管工作的人數增加,預期收入稅收收入低于預期的新工作是在低端的支付范圍。烏克蘭最重要的發(fā)展是，幾乎沒(méi)有煤從非政府控制地區的無(wú)煙煤煤礦轉移到政府控制地區的發(fā)電廠(chǎng)。該國西部的煤礦也受到了影響。2014年，可再生能源在意大利發(fā)電的燃料組合中所占的比例略有下降，從15%降至14%。然而，可再生能源的增長(cháng)主要打擊了CCGT，這是一個(gè)演變，現在是一個(gè)趨勢。11月，政府任命了新能源部長(cháng)Temenuzhka Petkova。這位部長(cháng)已啟動(dòng)了對能源行業(yè)的評估，旨在穩定該行業(yè)，該行業(yè)的債務(wù)仍在不斷累積。2014年捷克的褐煤產(chǎn)量為38.2噸，比2013年減少了2.2噸。近年來(lái)，褐煤的開(kāi)發(fā)表明，自2011年以來(lái)，每年減少200 - 300萬(wàn)噸。有五個(gè)褐煤在該國礦業(yè)公司:Severo?eske輕而易舉地(56%)、Vr?anska uhelna (17%)、Sokolovska uhelna (17%)、Severni energeticka(9%)和椎體深礦井,Sev-en的一部分,主導者——(1%)。與2013年12月相比，捷克褐煤行業(yè)員工人數減少了331人，至8280人。2014年德國褐煤產(chǎn)量為178.2噸，較上年下降2.6%。德國中部地區的煤炭開(kāi)采量較高(增長(cháng)7%)，萊茵蘭(下降5%)和勞西茨(下降3%)的比例略低。在Helmstedter地區的發(fā)電廠(chǎng)關(guān)閉數月后，去年交付了1.8公噸(+52%)。在希臘，褐煤的產(chǎn)量在過(guò)去兩年中下降了。這不是由于市場(chǎng)的任何減少，而是由于有限的褐煤儲量。由于經(jīng)濟措施影響了生產(chǎn)，工人人數略有下降。2014年，波蘭國內生產(chǎn)總值增長(cháng)3.3%，出口增長(cháng)5.3%，進(jìn)口增長(cháng)5.6%，工業(yè)增長(cháng)3.2%。工業(yè)部門(mén)的就業(yè)增長(cháng)了0.6%。2014年12月波蘭失業(yè)率為8%，比前一年下降了2%。去年經(jīng)常項目有了改善。同期預算赤字254億坡朗，僅為2014年預算的52.1%。匈牙利GDP增長(cháng)約3%，但2014年能源消耗穩定在950 PJ。煤炭和褐煤在一次能源消費中的比重保持在15%左右。羅馬尼亞硬煤一次能源消費由2013年的0.934萬(wàn)tce下降到2014年的0.744萬(wàn)tce，褐煤一次能源消費由5810萬(wàn)tce下降到552.9萬(wàn)tce。煤炭在凈供電量中的占比從51.7 TWh提高到56.3 TWh。斯洛伐克的煤炭產(chǎn)量最高達到5.7噸，2012年穩定在2.3噸左右。未來(lái)幾年，產(chǎn)量應該在1.8-1.9噸左右。國家整體經(jīng)濟運行良好，GDP預計增長(cháng)3-5%，并以每年0.8%的速度逐步下降。斯洛文尼亞2015年將是一個(gè)挑戰斯洛文尼亞電廠(chǎng)?o?tanj和煤礦Premogovnik Velenje, HSE集團的一部分。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS - WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND  SEABORNE TRADE Important decisions Global coal production in 2014 was little changed at 7.2 billion tonnes, steam coal slightly decreasing  from 6300 Mt to 6200 Mt and coking coal increasing by 100 Mt to 1000 Mt. Global coal trade Global seaborne hard coal trade is estimated at 1 200 Mt in 2014, of which 900 Mt were steam coal and  300 Mt were coking coal. Coal prices and trends Steam coal prices are declining and this trend is likely to continue. The main reason for the decrease of  coal prices is an over capacity due to lower demand, a consequence of slowing GDP growth rates in Asia,  especially in China, but also due to the weak global economic situation. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET HARD COAL Czech Republic Hard coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 8.7 Mt in 2014, a very small increase from 2013. The development of hard coal production since 1987 shows a gradual decline, except for the last  two years when output stabilised.Germany In Germany, in 2016, only two mines will remain in operation, in line with the plan to close all hard coal  mining by 2018. In 2014, coal production slightly increased to 7.64 Mt from 7.55 Mt in 2013 as a new  4 m thick seam was exploited. Poland Hard coal production in Poland slightly decreased from 76.5 Mt in 2013 to 72.5 Mt in 2014. Sales  decreased as well, from 77.5 Mt 2013 to 70.3 Mt of hard coal in 2014 (from 22.7 billion PLN to almost  19.4 billion PLN). The number of workers was reduced from approximately 108 800 in 2013 to 103 000  in 2014, although the number of apprentices is still healthy. Spain Coal production in Spain in 2014 is estimated at 3.9 Mt. The first fuel in the mix is nuclear energy with  22%, followed by wind energy with 20%. Natural gas generated 8.5% of electricity, the lowest figure in  the last five years, while coal’s share actually increased to 16%. United Kingdom The United Kingdom has continued slowly to recover from the recession, but there are concerns that, although the number of people working has increased, the expected income tax revenues are below  what was expected as many of the new jobs are at the lower end of the pay scale. Ukraine The most important development is that there was nearly no coal moving from the anthracite coal mines  in the non-governmental controlled area to the power plants in the governmental controlled area. The  mines in the western part of the country are suffering as well. Italy The share of coal in the fuel mix for power generation in Italy slightly reduced in 2014, from 15% to 14%,  being replaced by renewables. However, the increase in renewables mainly hit CCGT, an evolution that  is now a trend. LIGNITE Bulgaria In November, a new Energy Minister was named by the government, Temenuzhka Petkova. The Minister  has launched a review of the energy sector, aimed at stabilising the sector, which continues to  accumulate debt. Czech Republic Brown coal production in the Czech Republic amounted to 38.2 Mt in 2014, 2.2 Mt less than in 2013. The  development of brown coal over recent years shows a slow decline of 2-3 million tonnes per year since  2011. There are five brown coal mining companies in the country: Severo?esk doly (56%), Vr?ansk  uheln (17%), Sokolovsk uheln (17%), Severn energetick (9%) and the Centrum deep mine, part of  Sev-en, a.s. (1%). The number of employees in the Czech brown coal industry decreased by 331 persons  to 8,280 persons compared with December 2013. Germany Lignite production in 2014 was 178.2 Mt, 2.6% below the previous year. Coal mining was higher in Central  Germany (+7%) and slightly lower in Rhineland (-5%) and in Lausitz (-3%). After a multi-month shutdown  of the power plant in Helmstedter area, 1.8 Mt (+52%) were delivered last year. Greece In Greece the production of lignite declined over the last two years. This was not due to any market  reduction, but to limited lignite reserves. The number of workers is in slight decline, due to the economic  measures, which affected production. Poland In 2014, Polish GDP growth was 3.3%, exports increased by 5.3% and imports increased by 5.6%, while industrial growth was 3.2%. Employment in the industry sector increased by 0.6%. Unemployment rate  in Poland in December 2014 was 8%, which is 2% lower than the previous year. There was an  improvement in the current account last year. In the mentioned period, the budget deficit amounted to  PLN 25.4 billion, and was only 52.1% of the amount set in the budget for 2014. Hungary The Hungarian GDP grew by approximately 3%, but the energy consumption remained stable at 950 PJ in 2014. The share of coal and lignite in primary energy consumption remained constant at around 15%. Romania In Romania, the primary energy consumption from hard coal decreased from 0.934 in 2013 to 0.744  million tce in 2014, while lignite decreased from 5.810 to 5.529 million tce. However, the share of coal in  net power supply increased from 51.7 TWh to 56.3 TWh. Slovakia Coal mining in Slovakia reached a maximum of 5.7 Mt and stabilised at around 2.3 Mt in 2012. In the  coming years, production should be around 1.8-1.9 Mt. The overall economy of the country is doing well, with a forecasted GDP of +3-5%, gradually declining by 0.8% per year. Slovenia 2015 will be a challenging year for the Slovenian power plant ?o?tanj and the coal mine Premogovnik  Velenje, part of HSE group.