歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2009-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2009-3(2009)

全球市場(chǎng)2009年全球經(jīng)濟預計將進(jìn)一步放緩。雖然經(jīng)合組織國家的經(jīng)濟預計將下降3.4%，但非經(jīng)合組織國家預計將增長(cháng)1.6%。預計歐洲和日本2010年的復蘇將非常緩慢。僅中國在2008年就增長(cháng)了9%，預計2009年將達到+8.3%。非經(jīng)合組織國家的經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)過(guò)去和將來(lái)都是由中國和印度引領(lǐng)的，這將導致對進(jìn)口動(dòng)力煤的更高需求。從2000年到2007年，動(dòng)力煤貿易以年均10%的速度增長(cháng)，2008 - 2010年將是行業(yè)整合的年份，與其他行業(yè)相比仍呈現相對穩定的態(tài)勢。在全球煤炭市場(chǎng)上，對蒸汽煤的需求有所回落。低廉的天然氣價(jià)格和停滯不前的經(jīng)濟活動(dòng)使得世界上的煤炭使用量非常少。甚至美國也減少了煤炭進(jìn)口。不過(guò)，一個(gè)穩定因素是來(lái)自中國和印度的需求不斷增長(cháng)。雖然中國在2008年仍是煤炭?jì)舫隹趪?+8公噸)，但在2009年成為煤炭?jì)暨M(jìn)口國，煤炭進(jìn)口總量增加了約60公噸。這意味著(zhù)，如果沒(méi)有中國的額外需求，全球動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)將供過(guò)于求52公噸動(dòng)力煤。中國在其中扮演著(zhù)“搖擺的需求者”的角色。世界煤炭貿易大西洋市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)力煤(2009年1月至8月)達到133噸，比2008年同期減少了10噸。南非對歐洲出口較少，但對印度出口較多。哥倫比亞保住了在歐洲的地位，但由于需求減弱，在北美、中南美洲的銷(xiāo)量有所下降。俄羅斯保持了在歐洲的地位，并增加了對遠東的出口。波蘭和委內瑞拉幾乎從市場(chǎng)上消失。b)太平洋市場(chǎng)太平洋市場(chǎng)下降了5噸與澳大利亞是唯一重要的出口國,出口增加8噸到環(huán)太平洋地區和印尼出口增加1噸。主要觀(guān)察減少在中國(公/ 13噸)。b)大西洋市場(chǎng)供給在大西洋市場(chǎng),南非(+ 4噸)和俄羅斯(+ 3 Mt)進(jìn)一步增加出口。整個(gè)大西洋市場(chǎng)萎縮了1公噸。與2008年同期相比，2009年前6個(gè)月海運焦煤市場(chǎng)減少了‐22公噸，達到80公噸。澳大利亞(‐9公噸)、加拿大(‐6公噸)和美國(‐5公噸)出現了較大降幅。4所示。價(jià)格演變(見(jiàn)表1)a)動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格仍相對較高，預計短期內無(wú)法與歐洲天然氣競爭。到2010年，天然氣價(jià)格將保持在有吸引力的水平。由于美國和歐洲工業(yè)復蘇緩慢，大西洋盆地(Atlantic Basin)對蒸汽煤的低需求(也是在2010年)不會(huì )導致任何重大價(jià)格上漲。美元疲軟對煤炭生產(chǎn)商來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)進(jìn)一步的問(wèn)題?？稍偕茉磳⒗^續增加歐洲電力生產(chǎn)的市場(chǎng)份額。綜上所述，可以說(shuō)，全球蒸汽煤貿易在經(jīng)歷了2000年以來(lái)的高速增長(cháng)后，在2008年至2010年之間進(jìn)入了整合階段。如果沒(méi)有中國出人意料的高需求，動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)將出現巨大的供需失衡。b)焦煤和焦炭?jì)r(jià)格盡管對焦煤的需求依然疲軟(除了來(lái)自中國的需求)，但鋼鐵行業(yè)略有回升，導致現貨市場(chǎng)焦煤價(jià)格不斷上漲。中國的可樂(lè )市場(chǎng)完全崩潰了;2009年4月，中國出口的焦炭只有約2萬(wàn)噸。在2008年夏季可樂(lè )價(jià)格非常高之后，2008年冬季可樂(lè )價(jià)格暴跌，但目前又在緩慢回升。2009年3月，焦炭的fob中國價(jià)格為420美元/噸。運費運費對散貨船在今年早些時(shí)候從非常低的水平,推動(dòng)了更強大的中國對鐵礦石的需求。ARA之間的差異和理查茲灣交貨價(jià)格通常低于運費,展示太平洋與大西洋的相對實(shí)力的市場(chǎng)。5. 經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織(歐洲、日本、美國)工業(yè)生產(chǎn)的減少削弱了工業(yè)化國家2008 / 2009年，甚至2010年對電力和動(dòng)力煤的需求。低廉的天然氣價(jià)格和不斷增長(cháng)的可再生能源發(fā)電量，將使歐洲和美國對進(jìn)口煤炭的需求持續疲軟。太平洋市場(chǎng)將繼續在動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)中發(fā)揮更大的主導作用。中國搖擺不定的需求角色越來(lái)越重要。供應方面繼續由印度尼西亞、澳大利亞、哥倫比亞、俄羅斯和南非主導。像波蘭和委內瑞拉這樣的小生產(chǎn)商失去了市場(chǎng)份額。

WORLD MARKET In 2009 the global economy is expected to slow down further. Whilst the economies of OECD countries are expected to fall by ‐3.4%, Non‐OECD‐countries are expected to grow by +1.6%. Only a very slow recovery is being expected for the year 2010 in Europe and Japan. China alone had an increase of +9% in 2008 and it is expected to reach +8.3% in 2009. The economic growth of Non‐OECD countries was and will be lead by China and India, leading to a higher demand of steam coal imports. Steam coal trade increased from 2000 to 2007 by an average of 10% annually, the years 2008‐2010 will be years of consolidation, which still shows a relatively stable situation compared with other industries. On the global coal market, steam coal demand slipped back. The low gas prices and the stagnating economic activities drove the world to use very little coal. Even the USA decreased its coal imports. A stabilising factor is nevertheless the increasing demand from China and India. Whilst China remained a net coal exporter in 2008 (+8 Mt), it became a net importer in 2009, with a total coal import increase of some 60 Mt. This means that without the additional demand from China, World steam coal market would be oversupplied by 52 Mt of steam coal. China herewith has a role of ‘swing demander’.  WORLD COAL TRADE 1. STEAM COAL (see Table 2) On the Atlantic market steam coal (January‐August 2009) reached 133 Mt, which is 10 Mt less than for the same period in 2008. South Africa exported less to Europe but much more to India. Colombia kept its position in Europe, but lost sales in North, Middle and South America due to weaker demands. Russia kept its position in Europe and increased exports to the Far East. Poland and Venezuela nearly disappeared from the market.   b) Pacific Market The Pacific market decreased by 5 Mt with Australia being the only significant exporter, increasing exports by 8 Mt into the Pacific rim and Indonesia increasing exports by 1 Mt. The main decrease was observed in China (‐ 13 Mt).b) Atlantic Market supply On the Atlantic market, South Africa (+ 4 Mt) and Russia (+ 3 Mt) further increase exports. The total Atlantic market shrunk by 1 Mt.  2. COKING COAL SUPPLY (see Table 3) The seaborne coking coal market dropped by ‐22 Mt in the first 6 months 2009 compared to the same period in 2008 and reached 80 Mt. Major decreases were observed in Australia (‐9 Mt), Canada (‐6 Mt) and the USA (‐5 Mt).  4. PRICE EVOLUTION (see Table 1) a) Steam Coal Prices Steam coal prices are still relatively high and are not expected to become competitive to gas in Europe in the short‐term. Gas is set to remain at attractive price levels into 2010. The low demand for steam coal in the Atlantic Basin, also in 2010, will not allow any major price increases because of the slow industrial recovery in the US and in Europe. The weak dollar is a further problem for coal producers. Renewables will continue to increase market share in electricity production in Europe.   To conclude it can be said that Global steam coal trade has entered a phase of consolidation between 2008 and 2010 after enormous growth rates since 2000. Without the unexpected high additional demand from China, the steam coal market would have a large imbalance between demand and supply.   b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Although the demand for coking coal stayed weak (except from China), the steel industry is slightly picking up, leading to growing coking coal prices on the spot‐market. The Chinese coke market totally collapsed; in April 2009 there were only some 20.000 t of coke exported. After the very high coke prices in summer 2008 the prices collapsed in winter 2008 but are currently again picking up slowly. In March 2009 the coke price fob‐China was 420 US$/t.5. FREIGHT RATES Freight rates for bulk carriers have recovered from the very low levels earlier in the year, being driven back up by stronger demand from China for iron ore. The differentials between ARA and fob Richards Bay prices are generally lower than the freight rates, demonstrating the relative strength of the Pacific compared to the Atlantic market. 5. OUTLOOK The reduction of industrial production in the OECD (Europe, Japan, United States) weakens the demand for electricity and thermal coal in industrialized countries in 2008 / 2009, maybe even in 2010. Low gas prices and increasing amounts of electricity from renewable sources will keep demand weak for imported coal in Europe but also in the US. The Pacific market will continue to play a more dominant role in the thermal coal market. The swing demander role of China is of increasing importance. The supply side continues to be dominated by Indonesia, Australia, Colombia, Russia and South Africa. Smaller producers like Poland and Venezuela lost market share.