歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2007-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2007-3(20078)

下面的評論和數字只適用于海運的世界煤炭市場(chǎng)。它們在一定程度上是初步的。在2007年1 - 9月期間，全球海運煤炭市場(chǎng)增加了29mio?！暝黾?0萬(wàn)至45萬(wàn)公噸。t是估計。增長(cháng)率約為5%。動(dòng)力煤(見(jiàn)表2)動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)分為太平洋市場(chǎng)和大西洋市場(chǎng)。這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)之間的噸位交換是次要的，數量約占7 - 8%的海上貿易的蒸汽煤。The 主要 出口國 Atlantic 市場(chǎng) 仍 Indonesia (from 的 Pacific side).全年增加3000萬(wàn)英鎊。t是預期。a)今年前9個(gè)月，中國從太平洋市場(chǎng)進(jìn)口了3400萬(wàn)桶石油。t對27mio。2006年同期;這意味著(zhù)增加了7百萬(wàn)。中國今年前9個(gè)月的出口額為3600萬(wàn)美元。t對44 Mio。這意味著(zhù)要減少8百萬(wàn)。中國要求美國在2007年1-9月提供15兆。我們不能再從世界市場(chǎng)上購貨了。因為中國效應23兆。世界市場(chǎng)上大量的煤必須由其他國家供應。印尼和越南進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)了出口。少量的加拿大蒸汽煤供應到太平洋市場(chǎng)。 Australia 有利于 高價(jià) 煉焦 煤 出口 對 動(dòng)力 煤 , 因為 limited 出口 能力 Australian ports.b)大西洋市場(chǎng)供給大西洋市場(chǎng)的供給側總體呈上升趨勢。波蘭減少了出口，哥倫比亞和美國增加了出口。世界市場(chǎng)的高價(jià)格吸引了美國出口商額外的噸數。俄羅斯、南非和委內瑞拉保持了出口穩定。印度從南非進(jìn)口的煤炭比前幾年都多，頭9個(gè)月就進(jìn)口了500萬(wàn)公噸。與2006年同期相比沒(méi)有增長(cháng)。c)焦煤供應(見(jiàn)表3)在2007年1 - 9月期間，海運焦煤出口總量增加了12億噸。2007年的前景是增加15至17億噸。這是多年來(lái)的最高增長(cháng)。d)價(jià)格演變(見(jiàn)表1)動(dòng)力煤只有歐元走強才使歐洲客戶(hù)的價(jià)格下降。焦煤/焦炭焦煤的價(jià)格在下一個(gè)合同期內也趨向于大幅度上漲。據估計，2008年硬焦煤的進(jìn)口從95-98美元/噸離岸價(jià)上升到125-130美元/噸離岸價(jià)。同時(shí)，可口可樂(lè )的國際市場(chǎng)價(jià)格也在上漲。但全球焦炭市場(chǎng)僅能滿(mǎn)足全球鋼鐵廠(chǎng)6%的需求。運費率也顯示出歷史最高價(jià)格，并導致煤炭市場(chǎng)過(guò)熱。去年11月，理查茲灣-阿拉港(Richards Bay - ARA)角帆船的基準運費約為每噸50美元。1-11的平均費率約為30美元/噸。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market. They are  partly preliminary.  World Market Coal The total seaborne coal market increased in the period 1 - 9 2007 by 29 Mio. t. For the whole  year an increase of 40 to 45 Mio. t is estimated. The growth rate is about 5%.  Steam Coal (see Table 2)  The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges  between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents about 7 – 8 % of  the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is still Indonesia (from the Pacific side).  For the whole year an increase of 30 Mio. t is expected.  a) Pacific Market supply In the first nine months China imported 34 Mio. t against 27 Mio. t in the same period in  2006; that means an increase of 7 Mio. t.  The exports from China in the first nine months were 36 Mio. t against 44 Mio. t. This means  a reduction of 8 Mio. t. China demanded for 1-9 2007 15 Mio. t more from the World market.  Because of the China-effect 23 Mio. t of coal on the World market had to be supplied by  other countries.  Indonesia and Vietnam pushed their exports further. Small tonnages of Canadian steam coal  were supplied to the Pacific market.  Australia is favouring the high-price coking coal exports against steam coal because of limited export capacities in Australian ports.  b) Atlantic Market supply The supply side in the Atlantic market was rising in total. While Poland reduced its exports,  Columbia and the USA increased exports. The high prices in the World market are attracting  additional tonnages from US exporters.  Russia, South Africa and Venezuela kept their exports stable. India was demanding more  coal from South Africa than in previous years and imported in the first nine months 5 Mio. t  more than in the same period 2006.  c) Coking coal supply (see Table 3) In total coking coal seaborne exports increased in the months 1 - 9 2007 by 12 Mio t. The  outlook for 2007 is an increase of 15 to 17 Mio. t. This is the highest growth since years. d) Price evolution (see Table 1)  Steam coal Only the strong Euro is bringing the prices down for European customers.  Coking coal / Coke The prices for coking coal are also tending to high increases for the next contract period. The  coal imports are estimated for hard coking coal to rise from 95-98 US$/ t fob to 125-130  US$/t fob for the year 2008.  Also World market prices for coke are rising. But the World market for coke is supplying only  6% of the needs of steel-mills worldwide.  Freight rates Freight rates as well are showing historical top prices and are contributing to an overheated  coal market.  The benchmark freight Richards Bay – ARA was at around 50 US$/t for capesize-vessels in  November. The average rate 1-11 was around 30 US$/t.