歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2013-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2013-1(2013)

世界煤炭市場(chǎng)發(fā)展西北歐洲的煤炭?jì)r(jià)格一直低于100美元/ t,使進(jìn)口煤炭競爭非常激烈的市場(chǎng)上,這當然是一個(gè)好消息對煤炭燃燒一般但壞消息對于歐盟本土煤炭生產(chǎn)商不得不與這些低價(jià)競爭。就連美國和澳大利亞的企業(yè)也難以維持如此低的產(chǎn)量。海運費率也極低，使托運人難以生存。在某些時(shí)候，理查茲灣的運煤比阿拉港的運煤貴。盡管RB-ARA路線(xiàn)已經(jīng)變得不那么重要了(南非現在將煤炭運往東部，很少運往歐洲)，價(jià)格仍然是一個(gè)重要的指標。分析人士預計，煤炭?jì)r(jià)格將在未來(lái)幾年回升，但他們的樂(lè )觀(guān)可能是錯誤的。關(guān)于全球煤炭市場(chǎng)的世界煤炭生產(chǎn)和海運貿易的一般數據已經(jīng)有了，詳細情況將隨后公布。全球硬煤產(chǎn)量預計將超過(guò)70億噸，總計約72億噸，其中澳大利亞的產(chǎn)量將大幅增加，這不是真正的增長(cháng)，而是2011年洪災后的復蘇。中國以及印度尼西亞、哥倫比亞、俄羅斯和南非的產(chǎn)量預計也將增加3.8%左右。歐洲煤炭市場(chǎng)歐盟2012年煤炭產(chǎn)量幾乎保持不變,而褐煤產(chǎn)業(yè)享有超過(guò)8噸產(chǎn)量增加以及硬煤炭進(jìn)口增加了12噸。數據顯示,這對所有在歐盟,歐盟采取措施限制煤炭消費消費上升了19噸。無(wú)煙煤波蘭產(chǎn)生約90%的電力來(lái)自煤和褐煤和整體經(jīng)濟形勢不是太壞。2012年，原煤產(chǎn)量78.1萬(wàn)噸，動(dòng)力煤產(chǎn)量增長(cháng)2.8%，焦煤產(chǎn)量增長(cháng)4.1%。德國2012年的硬煤產(chǎn)量為11.6噸，對發(fā)電廠(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)量約為980萬(wàn)噸。政府繼續實(shí)施其主要的電力市場(chǎng)改革，減少煤炭燃燒。然而，由于天然氣價(jià)格過(guò)高，2012年燃煤發(fā)電增長(cháng)了40%，而歐盟碳排放交易體系的碳價(jià)格對煤炭競爭力的影響微乎其微。在西班牙，政府在2012年削減了對煤炭行業(yè)63%的援助。2011年，援助資金為3.01億歐元，2012年削減至1.11億歐元。2012年，捷克的硬煤產(chǎn)量略有增加，達到11.4噸。奧地利的煤炭消費量略有下降，降至3.2噸，其中約一半供應給三家燃煤電廠(chǎng)，一家為EVN所有，另一半供應給鋼廠(chǎng)。煤炭主要從波蘭、捷克共和國和俄羅斯進(jìn)口。德國褐煤在2012年表現較好?？偖a(chǎn)出185.4噸，其中166噸供應給了發(fā)電廠(chǎng)，產(chǎn)生了158太瓦時(shí)的電力，包括來(lái)自科隆附近的博阿2號和3號以及Cottbus附近的Boxberg R號的新機組。為了從歐盟獲得更多的財政支持，工資被削減了近50%，養老金被削減了。波蘭褐煤仍有利可圖:生產(chǎn)增加了3% Be?chatow是最成功的。在捷克共和國褐煤產(chǎn)量達到43.5公噸。積極的信息來(lái)自捷克工業(yè)的現代化Prune?ov電廠(chǎng)由?EZ操作。5個(gè)210兆瓦的發(fā)電機組將被3個(gè)250兆瓦的發(fā)電機組取代。保加利亞2012年的經(jīng)濟活動(dòng)依然疲軟，但預計2013 - 2014年將略有復蘇。2012年3月，保加利亞政府決定放棄在貝倫新建一座核電站(NPP)的計劃，轉而在Kozludy新建一座反應堆。匈牙利的褐煤產(chǎn)量穩定在9.2噸，預計耗電量下降1.3%，進(jìn)口量保持穩定。在斯洛伐克，今后五年的新能源政策仍在制定中。簡(jiǎn)易爆炸裝置和排放交易系統的換位工作已接近完成，一項新的空氣保護法案和一項新的排放交易法案已經(jīng)到位。在斯洛文尼亞新電廠(chǎng)600 MW?o?tanj (TE?單元6),在建?alek山谷附近Velenje部分資金由歐洲投資銀行(EIB)的貸款和歐洲復興開(kāi)發(fā)銀行(EBRD)分別- 4.4億和€€2億。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Coal prices to NW Europe have stayed mostly below 100 US$/t, making imported  coal very competitive on the market, which is of course good news for coal burn in  general but bad news for indigenous EU coal producers which have had to  compete with these low prices. Even US and Australian companies had difficulties  maintaining production at such low prices. Sea freight rates remained extremely low  as well, making it difficult for shippers to survive. At certain times, loaded coal at  Richards Bay was more expensive than delivered coal at ARA ports. Even though the  RB-ARA route has become less significant (South Africa now ships its coal East and  rarely to Europe), the price remains an important indicator. Analysts expect a  recovery of the coal price in the years to come, but their optimism may be  misplaced. WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE General data on the global world coal market are already available, details will  follow later. Global hard coal production is expected to exceed 7 bn t, totalling  some 7.2 bn t with a significant production increase from Australia, which is not a real  increase but a recovery from the floods in 2011. China as well is expected to have  increased production by some 3.8%, as well as Indonesia, Colombia, Russia and  South Africa who increased output. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET EU hard coal production in 2012 stayed practically the same, whilst the lignite  industry enjoyed an increase in output of more than 8 Mt as well as hard coal imports  which increased by 12 Mt.  Figures show, that against all EU measures to limit coal consumption in the EU,  consumption went up by 19 Mt. HARD COAL Poland produces some 90% of its electricity from coal and lignite and the overall  economic situation is not too bad. Hard coal output in 2012 reached 78.1 Mt, steam  coal output increased by 2.8% and coking coal output by 4.1%. German hard coal production in 2012 totalled 11.6 Mt, with sales to power plants of  some 9.8 Mt.The United Kingdom did not see its economy recover, neither in 2011 nor in 2012. The  government continues to implement its major electricity market reforms,  compromising coal burn. Nevertheless, due to very high gas prices, electricity  generation from coal increased by 40% in 2012 and the EU ETS carbon price had only  little impact on coal’s competitiveness. In Spain the government had cut aid to the coal industry in 2012 by 63%. In 2011, aid  was €301 million and in 2012 this was cut to €111 million. In the Czech Republic hard coal output slightly increased in 2012 to reach 11.4 Mt. In Austria coal consumption slightly fell to 3.2 Mt of which around half is delivered to  the three coal-fired power plants, one owned by EVN, and the other half to steel  mills. Coal is imported mainly from Poland, the Czech Republic and Russia. LIGNITE In Germany lignite did rather well in 2012. Output totalled 185.4 Mt of which some  166 Mt was supplied to power plants, generating 158 TWh of electricity, including  from new units at BoA 2 and 3 near Cologne and Boxberg R near Cottbus. 2012 was another hard year for Greece, and 2013 could be even worse. Salaries  were cut by almost 50%, pensions were decreased, as required to obtain further  financial support from the EU. Poland Lignite has remained profitable: production increased by 3% with Be?chatw  being the most successful mine. In the Czech Republic lignite production reached 43.5 Mt. A positive message from  the Czech industry is the modernisation of Prun?ov power plant operated by ?EZ.  Five blocks of 210 MW will be replaced by three blocks of 250 MW. In Bulgaria economic activity remained weak in 2012, but is expected to recover  slightly in 2013/14. In March 2012, the Bulgarian government decided to abandon its  plan to build a new nuclear power plant (NPP) at Belen and will build an additional  reactor at NPP Kozludy instead. Lignite production in Hungary stayed stable at 9.2 Mt. Estimated power consumption  fell by 1.3% and imports stayed stable. In Slovakia the new Energy Policy for the next five years is still under development.  Transposition of the IED and ETS is nearly finished, with a new air protection act and a  new emissions trading act already in place. In Slovenia the new 600 MW ?o?tanj power plant (TE? Unit 6), under construction in  the ?alek valley near Velenje is partly financed by loans from the European  Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development  (EBRD) – €440 million and €200 million respectively.