歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2010-3EURACOAL-Market-Report-2010-3(2010)

2010年上半年，全球煤炭市場(chǎng)增長(cháng)了67噸，這是一個(gè)巨大的增長(cháng)，但與經(jīng)濟危機前相比，這個(gè)數字仍然很低。然而在夏末，市場(chǎng)略有下跌。主要的市場(chǎng)驅動(dòng)力是焦煤。隨著(zhù)歐洲、南北美洲、日本和韓國經(jīng)濟的復蘇，中國仍是一個(gè)強大的進(jìn)口國。世界煤炭貿易動(dòng)力煤(見(jiàn)表2)動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)持續增長(cháng)。像南非和哥倫比亞這樣的“經(jīng)典”大西洋供應商正越來(lái)越多地向太平洋市場(chǎng)供貨。2010年前8個(gè)月，中國從南非(3噸)和哥倫比亞(3噸)進(jìn)口了大量的蒸汽煤。從2010年1月到8月，中國總共進(jìn)口了107噸，而去年同期進(jìn)口了78噸。中國2009年進(jìn)口總量為127噸，2010年進(jìn)口總量可能達到150噸。在失去中國市場(chǎng)后，只有澳大利亞減少了對太平洋地區的出口。中國目前正從南非和哥倫比亞進(jìn)口蒸汽煤。預計環(huán)太平洋地區的貿易將進(jìn)一步增長(cháng)。b)大西洋市場(chǎng)供應大西洋市場(chǎng),而保持穩定,總增加4噸。需求依然疲軟,只有南非和哥倫比亞可以實(shí)現出口增加(3噸),而俄羅斯出口降低了2太。南非預計將達到63量65噸year.2結束。焦煤供應(見(jiàn)表3)2010年前6個(gè)月焦煤貿易增加了41噸，其中澳大利亞(+20噸)和美國(+13噸)是主要參與者。根據需求，澳大利亞能夠從蒸汽煤轉向焦煤出口。加拿大增加了5噸，俄羅斯增加了2噸，中國增加了1噸。這種增長(cháng)部分是由于歐洲鋼鐵工業(yè)的復蘇，但也由于來(lái)自中國、韓國和日本的需求增加。增加的另一個(gè)原因是補充庫存。因此，預計今年下半年的增長(cháng)將會(huì )放緩。蒙古通過(guò)陸路向中國運送了約8噸焦煤，這使澳大利亞失去了部分向中國運送焦煤的機會(huì )。中國正在使其進(jìn)口商品多樣化，并越來(lái)越多地從蒙古、俄羅斯和美國進(jìn)口焦煤，而犧牲了澳大利亞的利益。價(jià)格演變(見(jiàn)表1)a)動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格b)煉焦煤和焦炭?jì)r(jià)格煉焦煤價(jià)格目前正按季度確定，在經(jīng)歷了2009年的疲軟之后，今年價(jià)格將繼續上漲，預計漲幅將更大。PCI和半軟焦煤跟隨焦煤價(jià)格的演變。4所示。焦炭FOB中國的價(jià)格目前在400美元左右，這個(gè)價(jià)格包括了40%的出口稅。5。運費率在2008年達到峰值后大幅下降，目前為10‐20美元/噸，這是由于新建造的散貨船增加了2009年(+10%)和2010年(15‐16%)的船隊運力。6。在2009年發(fā)展了10%的散裝運輸船隊之后，2010年的發(fā)展速度可能會(huì )達到15‐16%。從1月到9月，運力增長(cháng)了大約12%。主要增加的是約28米寬的好望角型船只。2010年9月底，總容量約為517萬(wàn)噸，而2009年底為462萬(wàn)噸。大宗運輸船隊的強勁發(fā)展和世界經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)的疲軟可能會(huì )使運費保持在目前的水平。

WORLD MARKET During the first half of 2010 the world coal market grew by 67 Mt, which is a substantial increase but compared to the years before the economic crisis, the figure is still low. However at the end of the summer, the market decreased slightly.   The main market driver is coking coal. China remains a strong importer, together with the revival of the economy in Europe, South and North America, Japan and Korea.   WORLD COAL TRADE 1. STEAM COAL (see Table 2) The market for steam coal continues to grow. “Classic” Atlantic suppliers like South Africa and Colombia are delivering increasing quantities to the Pacific market. In the first eight months of 2010 China imported considerable quantities of steam coal from South Africa (3 Mt) as well as from Colombia (3 Mt). Altogether China imported 107 Mt from January to August 2010, against 78 Mt during the same period last year. China’s total imports in 2009 amounted to 127 Mt. In 2010 imports could amount to 150 Mt.a) Pacific Market The Pacific Market grew by 22 Mt, with Indonesia steadily increasing exports (+26 Mt). Only Australia decreased exports to the Pacific having lost markets in China, which is now importing steam coal from South Africa and Colombia. Further trade increase is expected in the Pacific Rim. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic Market stayed rather stable, with a total increase of 4 Mt. The demand remained weak, only South Africa and Colombia could achieve export increases (both 3 Mt), whilst Russia decreased exports by 2 Mt. South Africa is expected to reach a total of 63‐65 Mt at the end of the year.2. COKING COAL SUPPLY  (see Table 3) Coking coal trade increased by 41 Mt in the first six months of 2010 with Australia (+20 Mt) and USA (+13 Mt) being the major players. Depending on demand, Australia is able to switch from steam coal to coking coal exports. Canada increased exports by 5 Mt, Russia by 2 Mt and China by 1 Mt. This growth is partly due to the comeback of the European steel industry but also to increasing demands from China, South Korea and Japan. Another reason for this increase is the replenishing of stocks. Growth in the second half of the year is therefore expected to be lower. Mongolia delivers some 8 Mt of coking coal to China by land, making Australia lose a part of its coking coal deliveries to China.   China is diversifying its imports and increasingly importing coking coal from Mongolia, and also from Russia and the USA at the expense of Australia.3. PRICE EVOLUTION (see Table 1) a) Steam Coal Prices b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Coking coal prices are now being determined on a quarterly basis and after a weak year in 2009, they are getting higher this year and are expected to grow even more. PCI and semi‐ soft coking coal are following the price evolution of coking coal.   4. EVOLUTION OF COKE PRICES FOB CHINA The coke price fob China is currently traded at some 400 US$, a price which includes an export tax of 40 %.  5. FREIGHT RATES Freight rates came dramatically down after a peak in 2008 and are now between 10‐20 US$/t due to new‐build of bulk carriers, with increased fleet capacities in 2009 (+10%) and 2010 (15‐16%).   6. DEVELOPMENT OF THE BULK TRANSPORT FLEET After a 10 % development of the bulk transport fleet in 2009, the development rate will probably reach 15  ‐ 16% in 2010. Between January and September, capacity increased by approximately 12%. The major increase was constituted by capesize vessels with approximately 28 M Dwt. At the end of September 2010 the overall capacity was approximately 517 M Dwt against 462 M Dwt at the end of 2009. The strong development of the bulk transport fleet and the somewhat weaker growth of the world economy might maintain freight rates at their current level.