歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2009-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2009-1(2009)

全球市場(chǎng)2008年的一些數據是初步的。然而，所描述的一般趨勢是正確的。2008年全球硬煤產(chǎn)量增加了2億噸甚至更多;僅中國就增加了160 - 170噸的產(chǎn)量，這將再次導致煤炭在全球發(fā)電中的份額增加。煤炭?jì)α控S富，由于能源價(jià)格上漲和生產(chǎn)技術(shù)現代化，資源也更加豐富。美國、中國和俄羅斯擁有世界上最大的煤炭資源，因此它們參與后京都承諾對于世界有機會(huì )緩解氣候變化的影響是至關(guān)重要的;任何其他國家單方面的減排努力都將是徒勞的。世界煤炭貿易a)太平洋市場(chǎng)供應海運動(dòng)力煤貿易增加了12噸，總計達到631噸。澳大利亞在太平洋地區出口增加了17噸,印尼12噸(盡管印尼數據沒(méi)有證實(shí)),而中國出口下降9噸,小于預期,和越南的13噸?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō),太平洋出口增加了10銅山b)大西洋市場(chǎng)供應大西洋的面積也增加了出口2噸。美國出口增加了7噸4噸。俄羅斯和哥倫比亞的出口降低了4噸,南非3 Mt和波蘭2 Mt?；仡櫝隹跀祿?我們觀(guān)察到太平洋一側的印尼出口大量的200噸煤炭,雖然俄羅斯和南非,也提供兩個(gè)市場(chǎng),出口大量的蒸汽煤。南非有許多新的采礦項目;所有的許可證都已頒發(fā)，但既沒(méi)有技術(shù)也沒(méi)有資金來(lái)開(kāi)采這些煤礦。2. 煉焦煤供應(見(jiàn)表3)海運煉焦煤貿易增加5噸，總量達到207噸。靈活的美國增加了9噸的出口量，而澳大利亞減少了3噸的出口量。加拿大出口保持穩定，幾個(gè)新項目將進(jìn)一步增加出口。中國需要國內使用的煤炭，但仍比2007年多出口了1噸，利用了價(jià)格高的優(yōu)勢。由于內需大，俄羅斯不得不減少出口。3.中國的可樂(lè )價(jià)格在2008年夏天也達到了歷史最高點(diǎn)(大約800美元/噸)，然后在2009年1月下降到300美元/噸。目前幾乎沒(méi)有對可樂(lè )的需求，平均每月出口1噸，而12月份的出口量?jì)H為8萬(wàn)噸。4所示。價(jià)格演變(見(jiàn)表1)a)動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格以南非離岸價(jià)計算，在2008年7、8月間出現了前所未有的價(jià)格上漲，當時(shí)價(jià)格達到175美元/噸，而在2009年初又回落到65-72美元/噸。它們可能進(jìn)一步下跌。b)煉焦煤和焦炭的價(jià)格半軟煉焦煤和PCI-coal的價(jià)格以同樣的速度上漲，當然比動(dòng)力煤的價(jià)格要高。在鋼鐵行業(yè)減產(chǎn)的背景下，焦炭?jì)r(jià)格(含灰分12.5%)急劇下降。離岸價(jià)仍然很高，但從去年11月的近800美元/噸降至450美元/噸。5.運費率理查茲灣-阿拉港曾達到52美元/噸的最高水平，并在12月暴跌至5美元/噸。紐卡斯爾- ARA的運費甚至達到85美元/噸，并在12月下降到11美元/噸。這當然是由于世界范圍內散貨船的大量擴展和需求的急劇下降;現在市場(chǎng)上有相當多的新噸。6. 由于世界經(jīng)濟正遭受?chē)乐厮ネ?，很難對2009年的前景做出預測。這將對鋼廠(chǎng)和動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響，但影響的確切性質(zhì)難以預測。在下次會(huì )議上，肯定會(huì )有更多關(guān)于2009年煤炭市場(chǎng)的澄清。

WORLD MARKET Some figures for 2008 are preliminary. Nevertheless, the general tendencies described are  correct.  Global hard coal production in 2008 increased by some 200 million tonnes (Mt) or even  more; China alone increased its production by 160 – 170 Mt. This will once more result in an  increased share of coal in global electricity generation. Coal reserves are abundant and, due  to the higher energy prices and modernized production technologies, resources also become  more abundant. USA, China and Russia have the biggest coal resources in the World, so  their participation in post-Kyoto commitments is essential for the world to have any chance  of mitigating the effects of climate change; any unilateral CO2 abatement efforts by other  countries will be useless.  World Coal Trade 1. Steam Coal (see table 2)  a) Pacific Market supply Seaborne steam coal trade increased by 12 Mt and reached 631 Mt in total. In the Pacific  area Australia increased exports by 17 Mt, Indonesia by 12 Mt (although Indonesian figures  are not confirmed), whilst China decreased exports by 9 Mt, which is less than expected, and  Vietnam by 13 Mt. In total, the Pacific increased exports by 10 Mt. b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic area also increased exports by 2 Mt in total. The USA increased exports by 7 Mt  and Columbia by 4 Mt. Russia decreased exports by 4 Mt, South Africa by 3 Mt and Poland  by 2 Mt. Reviewing the export figures, we observe that Indonesia on the Pacific side  exported the huge amount of 200 Mt of coal, whilst also Russia and South Africa, who deliver  to both markets, exported considerable amounts of steam coal. South Africa has many new  mine projects; the licences were all issued but there is neither technology nor financing  available to exploit the mines. 2. Coking coal supply (see Table 3)  Seaborne coking coal trade increased by 5 Mt reaching 207 Mt in total. The USA, being very  flexible, increased its exports by 9 Mt whilst Australia decreased exports by 3 Mt after having  managed major problems in Queensland. Exports from Canada stayed stable and several  new projects will increase exports further. China needs its coal for domestic use, but  nevertheless exported 1 Mt more than in 2007, taking advantage of the high prices. Russia  had to decrease exports due to a high domestic demand. 3. Chinese Coke Chinese coke price also reached historic peaks in summer 2008 (almost 800 US$/t) and then  dropped to 300 US$/t in January 2009. For the time being there is almost no coke demand,  there’s an average of 1 Mt being exported per month and in December the exports only  represented 80,000 tonnes.  4. Price evolution (see Table 1)  a) Steam Coal Prices Looking at the steam coal prices fob South Africa, an unprecedented price increase was  observed in July/August 2008, when prices reached 175 US$/t whilst they again dropped  back to 65-72 US$/t at the beginning of 2009. They could potentially drop further. b) Coking Coal and Coke Prices Semi-soft coking coal and PCI-coal prices have risen at the same rate and will of course be  priced at a premium to steam coal.  Coke prices (12.5% ash content) are falling steeply against the background of production  cuts in the steel industry. Fob prices are still high, but fell from almost 800 US$/t to 450  US$/t in November.  5. Freight rates Freight rates Richards Bay – ARA reached peak levels of 52 US$/t and plummeted in  December to 5 US$/t. Freight rates Newcastle – ARA even reached 85US$/t and dropped to  11 US$/t in December. This is certainly due to the big extension of the bulk carriers  worldwide coupled with the dramatic downturn in demand; there are now some considerable  new tonnages on the market. 6. Outlook It is difficult to give an outlook for 2009, with the World economy suffering a major  recession. This will have an impact on steel mills and the steam coal market, but the exact  nature of the impacts are difficult to predict. In the next meeting there will certainly be more  clarification about the coal markets in 2009.