歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2007-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2007-2(2007)

下面的評論和數字只適用于海運的世界煤炭市場(chǎng)。他們是初步的。全球市場(chǎng)煤炭2007年第一季度海運煤炭市場(chǎng)總量增加了2億噸，全年預計增加30至35億噸。動(dòng)力煤(見(jiàn)表2)動(dòng)力煤市場(chǎng)分為太平洋市場(chǎng)和大西洋市場(chǎng)。這兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)之間的噸位交換是次要的，數量約占7 - 8%的海上貿易的蒸汽煤。進(jìn)入大西洋市場(chǎng)的主要出口國仍然是印度尼西亞(來(lái)自太平洋地區)。全年增加了20到23兆。t是預期。a)太平洋市場(chǎng)供應印度尼西亞正在推動(dòng)其出口。中國第一季度出口減少了700萬(wàn)噸，進(jìn)口增加了近500萬(wàn)噸(蒸汽煤和無(wú)煙煤)，這意味著(zhù)其他出口國必須填補1200萬(wàn)噸的缺口。這主要是由印度尼西亞和越南完成的。大西洋供應市場(chǎng)在2007年的前三個(gè)月也經(jīng)歷了令人失望的演變。出口減少了8個(gè)工廠(chǎng)。主要原因是去年的出口量較低。c)焦煤供應(見(jiàn)表3)在2007年第一季度，海運焦煤出口總量增加了400萬(wàn)噸，2007年的前景是增加10至1200萬(wàn)噸。價(jià)格演變(見(jiàn)表1)動(dòng)力煤2007年第一季度，南非煤炭的fob價(jià)格仍在48 - 52美元/噸之間浮動(dòng)。cif-ARA的價(jià)格在2007年第一季度接近80美元/tce，但由于惡劣的天氣條件導致澳大利亞的生產(chǎn)和裝載困難，目前正在上漲，達到85美元/t。焦煤合同價(jià)格穩定。美國的一些現貨業(yè)務(wù)每噸增加10到20美元。這也可能是澳大利亞出口不足的反應。7月份，含12%灰分的焦炭?jì)r(jià)格升至277美元/噸。貨運本年度所有主要航線(xiàn)的運價(jià)均維持在非常高的水平;船只仍被封鎖在澳大利亞港口。

WORLD MARKET The following comments and figures only apply to the seaborne World Coal Market.  They are preliminary.  World Market Coal The total seaborne coal market increased in the first quarter 2007 by 2 Mio t. For the  whole year an increase of 30 to 35 Mio t is estimated.  Steam Coal (see Table 2) The Steam Coal market is divided into a Pacific and an Atlantic market. Tonnage exchanges between the two markets are of minor importance, the quantity represents  about 7 – 8 % of the seaborne traded steam coals. The major exporter into the Atlantic market is still Indonesia (from the Pacific side).  For the whole year an increase of 20 to 23 Mio. t is expected.  a) Pacific Market supply Indonesia is pushing its exports. China reduced its exports in the first quarter by 7  Mio t and increased its imports by nearly 5 Mio t (steam coal and anthracite), that  means that the other exporters have to fill the gap of 12 Mio t. That has mainly been  done by Indonesia and Vietnam.  b) Atlantic Market supply The Atlantic supply market also saw a disappointing evolution in the first three  months of 2007. The exports decreased by 8 Mill. t mainly because of low exports  compared to the last year.  c) Coking coal supply (see Table 3) In total coking coal seaborne exports increased in the first quarter 2007 by 4 Mio t.  The outlook for 2007 is an increase of 10 to 12 Mio. t.  d) Price evolution (see Table 1)  Steam coal  The fob-price for South African coal was still floating between 48 - 52 US$/t in the  first Quarter 2007.  The cif-ARA price was close to 80 US$/tce in the first quarter 2007 but is currently  increasing and reaches 85 US$/t due to production and loading difficulties in Australia, caused by bad weather conditions. Coking coal / Coke  The contract prices for coking coal were stable. Some spot business in the USA saw  increases between 10 to 20 US$/t. This also might be a reaction of Australian shortfall of exports.  The coke prices for 12,5% ash content coke went up to 277 US$/t in July.  Freight  The freight rates remained at very high levels throughout the current year on all major routes; vessels are still blocked at Australian harbours.