歐亞煤炭市場(chǎng)報告2011-1EURACOAL-Market-Report-2012-1(2012)

全球硬煤產(chǎn)量初步數據顯示，煤炭產(chǎn)量達到67億噸的歷史高位。自1990年以來(lái)，煤炭產(chǎn)量幾乎翻了一番，其中中國占了大部分。中國目前的煤炭產(chǎn)量占全球的一半。西北歐洲港口的煤炭?jì)r(jià)格在2008年夏天達到頂峰，之后由于全球經(jīng)濟危機而大幅下降。此后，油價(jià)在2011年上半年回升至120-130美元/噸的相對較高水平，但在下半年跌至100美元/噸，原因是入冬季節異常溫暖，導致庫存增加。2011年，海運運價(jià)總體保持在非常低的水平，航運公司幾乎無(wú)法彌補其邊際運營(yíng)成本。波羅的海干散貨運價(jià)指數(Baltic Dry Index)徘徊在1000至2000點(diǎn)之間，而2007年和2008年的峰值為10000點(diǎn)以上。過(guò)剩的機隊運力和不斷上漲的燃油成本，導致運營(yíng)商在一些航線(xiàn)上嘗試慢速航行。由于預計新船交付數量將再次超過(guò)報廢數量，2012年的費率可能仍將維持在較低水平。根據目前的訂單，并假設一些取消，好望角型船隊可能從2.45億噸增長(cháng)到2012年的2.75億噸。2011年，歐盟排放交易計劃(ETS)下的低碳價(jià)格和不穩定的配額價(jià)格是許多爭論的主題，特別是在接近年底時(shí)，價(jià)格降至8歐元/tCO2左右。雖然這些低價(jià)格反映出減排目標正在實(shí)現，但它們對運營(yíng)商或新進(jìn)入者投資二氧化碳捕獲和儲存等低碳技術(shù)幾乎沒(méi)有或根本沒(méi)有激勵作用。這導致歐盟委員會(huì )、歐洲議會(huì )、非政府組織甚至一些實(shí)業(yè)家呼吁對市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行“一次性”干預，以提振價(jià)格。這將是不受歡迎的，并將破壞該計劃作為一種有效的基于市場(chǎng)的手段，以實(shí)現在最高政治級別上達成一致的減排目標。歐洲煤炭市場(chǎng)歐盟無(wú)煙煤生產(chǎn)2011年略有下降到129.5噸,而享有的褐煤產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)出的增加幾乎29噸的會(huì )員國425.6公噸。無(wú)煙煤在波蘭,無(wú)煙煤生產(chǎn)總計75.7公噸。硬煤炭出口達到15.5公噸。許多公司在問(wèn)題;這就是開(kāi)采量下降的原因。在經(jīng)歷了幾年的下降后，就業(yè)率穩定了下來(lái)。目前，波蘭的硬煤行業(yè)雇傭了近11.4萬(wàn)人。在德國，受2018年底關(guān)閉硬煤礦協(xié)議的推動(dòng)，硬煤產(chǎn)量預計將再減少1噸。在此之前，該計劃已經(jīng)過(guò)非常嚴格的審查，現在可以根據國家援助立法，按計劃實(shí)施。不再可能逆轉關(guān)閉過(guò)程。根據該計劃，剩下的五個(gè)硬煤礦將逐步關(guān)閉，產(chǎn)量將進(jìn)一步下降。下一個(gè)關(guān)閉將是2012年年中薩爾礦，這是這個(gè)傳統礦區的最后一個(gè)礦。英國的煤炭消耗量上升了0.8%。煤炭占總發(fā)電量的30%，天然氣占40%，核能占19%，可再生能源占11%;英國幾乎沒(méi)有水電。從月度發(fā)電量來(lái)看，我們可以看到，天然氣在夏季價(jià)格低廉時(shí)使用量增加，而煤炭在冬季則更容易燃燒。在西班牙，產(chǎn)量增加了2.2噸。由于經(jīng)濟危機，近年來(lái)電力需求下降?？稍偕茉吹拇罅吭鲩L(cháng)，優(yōu)先于所有其他資源，使得電力非常昂貴。意大利蒸汽煤炭進(jìn)口增加了約7%,總計17噸,2011年焦煤37%,共計7太像意大利60%依賴(lài)進(jìn)口天然氣發(fā)電,預計政府將認識到平衡的混合能源的戰略重要性來(lái)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟增長(cháng),煤炭發(fā)電會(huì )有一個(gè)重要的角色。奧地利的進(jìn)口量保持在3.8噸左右，其中2噸焦煤和1.8噸蒸汽煤用于3臺發(fā)電機組。荷蘭進(jìn)口總量為11.7噸，其中煉焦煤3噸，動(dòng)力煤8.7噸。荷蘭有很多雄心勃勃的CCS項目，但CCS立法還沒(méi)有到位。在這些項目中，煤有可能被天然氣取代。比利時(shí)最近公布的2010年數據與我們根據工業(yè)消費做出的估計并不完全一致。大約1.5噸的蒸汽煤已經(jīng)被用來(lái)發(fā)電，Electrabel公司目前正在計劃新項目，但不幸的是，只有德國和荷蘭有這樣的計劃，因為比利時(shí)的政治環(huán)境對煤并不友好。煉焦煤主要用于阿塞洛在列日。另外0.5噸煤被用于國內用途，這使比利時(shí)總共進(jìn)口了大約4噸煤。在德國，褐煤占國內能源總產(chǎn)出的38.5%，占一次能源消費的11.7%。25%的電力來(lái)自褐煤。2011年德國褐煤消費量增長(cháng)4.2%，達到176.5噸。褐煤和煤球的工業(yè)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量也有所增加。2010年，由于經(jīng)濟危機，希臘褐煤產(chǎn)量大幅下降，同時(shí)天氣條件也不利于褐煤的消費。不過(guò)，2011年褐煤產(chǎn)量略有恢復，預計2012年將進(jìn)一步增加。未來(lái)褐煤產(chǎn)量有望穩定在每年60噸左右。國內褐煤極具競爭力的價(jià)格使得褐煤與其他燃料相比仍是工業(yè)用戶(hù)的首選燃料。2011年在波蘭,褐煤生產(chǎn)增加到62.8公噸。Konin的產(chǎn)量增加,而第二個(gè)坑是在Be?chatow操作。2011年9月,在Tomis?awice褐煤生產(chǎn)開(kāi)始。這個(gè)新的露天煤礦屬于柯寧褐煤礦，50公噸的儲量預計將持續到2030年。在保加利亞，國民議會(huì )通過(guò)了到2020年的能源戰略，這與目前的歐洲能源政策相一致，并允許進(jìn)一步開(kāi)發(fā)該國的煤炭?jì)?，以滿(mǎn)足環(huán)境要求。發(fā)電廠(chǎng)現代化和改造之后，將為新發(fā)電廠(chǎng)引入強制性CCS。在捷克共和國，褐煤由三家公司開(kāi)采，產(chǎn)量增加了3噸，達到46.6噸。該國積極參與發(fā)電廠(chǎng)的現代化建設;目前，褐煤發(fā)電廠(chǎng)Tusimice的四個(gè)區塊正在進(jìn)行升級改造。今年，褐煤發(fā)電廠(chǎng)Prunerov將開(kāi)始對另外三個(gè)機組進(jìn)行現代化改造。一個(gè)新的660兆瓦的火力發(fā)電廠(chǎng)正在萊德維斯興建，其發(fā)電效率為45%。它將被捕獲。這三個(gè)項目都由CEZ運營(yíng)。除了這些項目，這家捷克煤炭集團還計劃建設一座裝機容量為660兆瓦、發(fā)電效率為45%的褐煤發(fā)電廠(chǎng)。這座發(fā)電廠(chǎng)可能在2021年投入使用。在匈牙利，每年的褐煤產(chǎn)量預計將在未來(lái)幾年保持穩定，在9噸左右。從2013年開(kāi)始，褐煤產(chǎn)量將取決于二氧化碳的價(jià)格。以2011年國內供電情況看，裝機容量約9300 MW，總供電42.9 TWh，其中進(jìn)口約占15%。其中，核能占44.3%，緊隨其后的是天然氣(27.1%)和煤炭(18.7%)。2011年，斯洛伐克的煤炭產(chǎn)量保持在2.4噸的水平。HBP計劃將產(chǎn)量提高1%，預計從2012年起將維持在2.1噸/年。HBP繼續從Novaky礦床和Novaky礦區的新地下氣田XI進(jìn)行開(kāi)采，并在Handlova和Cigel附近地區進(jìn)行了一些勘探工作。

WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Preliminary figures for global hard coal production show a historic high of 6.7 bn tonnes of coal. Since 1990, coal production almost doubled, with China accounting  for most of this growth. The country now produces half of all global coal production. COAL PRICES Coal prices at northwest European ports peaked in the summer of 2008 before  dropping significantly on account of the global economic crisis. Since then, prices  have seen a recovery to reach the relatively high levels of 120-130 US$/t during H1  2011, before falling during the second half of the year to 100 US$/t because of an  unseasonably warm start to the winter and hence a build-up of stocks. FREIGHT RATES Sea freight rates in general remained very low in 2011, with shipping companies  barely covering their marginal operating costs. The Baltic Dry Index hovered  between 1,000 and 2,000, compared with peaks above 10,000 in 2007 and 2008.  Surplus fleet capacity and rising fuel costs led operators to experiment with slow steaming on some routes. Rates are likely to remain depressed in 2012 as new vessel  deliveries are again forecast to exceed scrap pages. Based on the current order  book, and assuming some cancellations, the Capesize fleet could grow from  245 million DWT to 275 million DWT in 2012. CARBON PRICES Low and volatile allowance prices under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) were  the subject of much debate during 2011, especially towards the end of the year  when prices fell to around €8/tCO2. Whilst these low prices reflect that emission  reduction targets are being met, they offer little or no incentive for operators or new  entrants to invest in low-carbon technologies such as CO2 capture and storage. This  has led to calls by the European Commission, European Parliament, NGOs and even  some industrialists for a “one-off” intervention in the market to boost prices. This  would be unwelcome and would discredit the scheme as an efficient market-based  instrument to reach emission-reduction objectives that have been agreed at the  highest political level. EUROPEAN COAL MARKET EU hard coal production in 2011 slightly declined to 129.5 Mt, whilst the lignite industry  enjoyed an increase in output of almost 29 Mt across Member States to 425.6 Mt. HARD COAL In Poland, hard coal production totaled 75.7 Mt. Hard coal exports reached some  15.5 Mt. Many companies struggled with problems; that’s why extraction fell.  Employment stabilized, after several years of decline. Currently, the Polish hard coal  industry employs almost 114,000 people.In Germany, driven by the agreement on closure of hard coal mines by the end of  2018, hard coal production decreased as foreseen by another 1 Mt. Beforehand, this  plan had been examined very closely and can now be implemented as planned, in  agreement with state aid legislation. It is no longer possible to reverse the closure  procedure. Accordingly to the plan, the remaining five hard coal mines will be  closed step-by-step and production will go down further. The next closure will be mid  2012 at the Saar mine, the last mine in this traditional mining area. In the United Kingdom coal burn went up by 0.8%. Coal had a total share in power  generation of 30%, gas 40%, nuclear 19% and renewables 11%; there is hardly any  hydro in the UK. Looking at monthly power generation we can see that gas use  increases in summer when it is cheap and that coal is rather burnt in winter. In Spain, production increased by 2.2 Mt. Due to the economic crisis, electricity  demand fell in recent years. The large growth of renewables, which have priority  over all other sources, made electricity very expensive. Italy increased steam coal imports by some 7%, totalling 17 Mt in 2011 and coking  coal by 37%, totalling 7 Mt. As Italy depends for 60% on imported natural gas for its  power generation, the government is expected to recognize the strategic  importance of a balanced energy mix to boost economic growth, where coal  generation would have an important role. Imports to Austria remain stable at about 3.8 Mt, of which 2 Mt coking coal and 1.8  Mt steam coal to fire the 3 power units. Imports to the Netherlands totalled 11.7 Mt of which 3 Mt coking coal and 8.7 Mt  steam coal. There are very ambitious CCS projects going on in the Netherlands but  the CCS legislation is still not in place. And it is possible that coal could be replaced  in these projects by gas. Belgium just recently published its 2010 figures which are not really in line with our  own estimates, based on industry consumption. Some 1.5 Mt of steam coal have  been burnt for power generation, new projects are currently planned by Electrabel,  but unfortunately only in Germany and the Netherlands, as the Belgian political  environment is hostile to coal. Coking coal was mostly used by Arcelor in Lige.  Another 0.5 Mt of coal was used for domestic purposes which makes a total of some  4 Mt of coal imports to Belgium. LIGNITE In Germany, lignite accounts for 38.5% of total domestic energy output and for 11.7%  of primary energy consumption. 25% of electricity is generated from lignite. German  lignite consumption increased by 4.2% in 2011 reaching 176.5 Mt. The production of  industrial products from lignite and briquettes also increased. In Greece lignite production fell dramatically in 2010 due to the economic crisis, but  also due to the weather conditions which were not favorable for lignite  consumption. Nevertheless, in 2011 lignite production recovered slightly and is  expected to further increase in 2012. Lignite production is expected to stabilize at  some 60 Mt per year in the future. The very competitive price of domestic lignite still  makes lignite the preferred choice for industrial consumers compared with other  fuels. In Poland, lignite production for 2011 increased to 62.8 Mt. There was increased  output at Konin, while a second pit is in operation at Be?chatw. In September 2011,  lignite production started at Tomis?awice. This new open pit belongs to the Konin  Lignite Mine and the reserves of 50 Mt are expected to last until 2030. In Bulgaria, the National Assembly adopted the Energy Strategy until 2020, consistent  with current European energy policy and allowing to further exploit the country’s  coal reserves, meeting environmental requirements. Power plant modernization and  retrofitting will be followed by the introduction of mandatory CCS for new power  plants.In the Czech Republic lignite is extracted by three companies and production  increased by 3 Mt, reaching 46.6 Mt. The country is very much involved in power  plant modernization; currently four blocks of the lignite-fired power plant Tusimice are 7 being upgraded. The modernization of three further units will start this year at the  lignite-fired power plant Prunerov. A new 660 MW coal-fired power plant is being  built in Ledvice with an efficiency of 45%. It will be capture ready. All three projects  are operated by CEZ. Further to these projects, the Czech Coal Group also plans the  construction of a 660 MW lignite-fired power plant with an efficiency of 45%. The  power plant could go into operation in 2021. In Hungary, annual lignite output is expected to stay stable for the coming years at  around 9 Mt. From 2013 onwards, lignite output will depend on the price of CO2.  Looking at domestic power supply in 2011, the installed capacity amounted to some  9,300 MW and gross power supply reached 42.9 TWh, of which some 15% was  imported. The largest share went to nuclear with 44.3%, followed by gas with 27.1%  and coal with 18.7%. In Slovakia, coal production stayed at the same level in 2011 at 2.4 Mt. HBP  increased production as planned by 1% and is expected to maintain it at 2.1 Mt/year  from 2012 onwards. HBP has continued extraction from the new underground field XI  in Novaky Deposit and Novaky Licensed Mining area and did some exploration  works in the areas around Handlova and Cigel.