資料簡(jiǎn)介
在過(guò)去10年中，中國風(fēng)電的部署前所未有，其容量從2005年的1.26千兆瓦增長(cháng)到2013年底的91.4千兆瓦（全球風(fēng)能理事會(huì )，2014年）。1盡管如此，所遇到的問(wèn)題包括資源分配不均，電力供需區位不同，需要擴大國內產(chǎn)業(yè)，需要實(shí)現財政支持的適度平衡。這些問(wèn)題已經(jīng)得到了一些成功的解決；但是，其他問(wèn)題仍然存在，例如風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)的延遲和并網(wǎng)農場(chǎng)發(fā)電量的削減，需要加以解決，以確保該國未來(lái)風(fēng)電發(fā)展的成功。 本報告將深入研究中國風(fēng)電發(fā)展背后的驅動(dòng)因素，以了解政策目標、政策措施和發(fā)展影響之間的復雜聯(lián)系。特別是，它審議了在項目方面遇到的兩個(gè)相關(guān)問(wèn)題，即發(fā)電量減少和延誤，以及如何解決這些問(wèn)題。該報告旨在找出可吸取的經(jīng)驗教訓，為中國和其他國家未來(lái)的政策措施提供參考。 分析發(fā)現，導致這兩個(gè)突出問(wèn)題的原因有技術(shù)、治理和經(jīng)濟因素。在延遲并網(wǎng)方面，技術(shù)因素是國家風(fēng)電資源的擴張已經(jīng)超過(guò)輸電建設。在治理方面，我們看到風(fēng)電場(chǎng)和電網(wǎng)建設規劃不統一，電網(wǎng)建設重視不夠，國家和國家兩級監督協(xié)調不夠。在經(jīng)濟上，電網(wǎng)運營(yíng)商的支持比電力發(fā)展的支持要弱。 在削減方面，電力供需不匹配。這里的技術(shù)因素是，在電力需求增長(cháng)與電力供應增長(cháng)不匹配的地區，出現了削減，導致電力“外溢”。有限的輸電能力也阻止了能源從供應地區轉移到需求最大的地區。增加和減少常規煤電的技術(shù)問(wèn)題（意味著(zhù)速度慢/很難做到）也意味著(zhù)，如果需要削減，風(fēng)力通常更容易削減。治理方面缺乏一體化，類(lèi)似于延遲連接的情況，是一個(gè)促成因素，導致在查明和解決這一問(wèn)題方面出現延誤，包括通過(guò)執行條例。此外，在基本層面上，政府一直以發(fā)電量為目標，而不是發(fā)電量。對于電網(wǎng)運營(yíng)商來(lái)說(shuō)，也沒(méi)有經(jīng)濟激勵機制來(lái)將風(fēng)力發(fā)電轉移到其他發(fā)電形式以抵消運營(yíng)風(fēng)險。固定支付不提供額外的獎勵熱發(fā)電機作為儲備風(fēng)或采取靈活的方式，以支持增加風(fēng)力發(fā)電（或至少防止削減）。
Over the last 10 years, China has seen an unprecedented deployment of wind power, with capacity growing from 1.26 gigawatts (GW) in 2005 to 91.4 GW at the end of 2013 (Global Wind Energy Council, 2014).1 Notwithstanding this impressive growth, the problems encountered have included uneven resource distribution, differing location of supply and demand of power, the need to expand domestic industry and the need to achieve a proper balance of financial supports. These issues have been addressed with some success; however, others persist, such as delay in connection of wind power to the grid and curtailment of generated power from connected farms, and need to be resolved to ensure the success of future wind power development in the country. This report takes a closer look at the drivers behind the impressive wind power development in China in order to understand the complex connection between the policy goals, policy measures and development impact. In particular, it considers two related issues that have been encountered—curtailment of generation and delays in connection of projects—and how these are being addressed. The report aims to identify the lessons to be learned to inform future policy measures in China and elsewhere. The analysis finds that there are technical, governance and economic factors that have given rise to these two prominent issues. With respect to delayed connection, the technical factor is that the expansion of national wind power resources has outpaced the construction of transmission. On the governance side, we see that construction plans for wind farms and grids are not aligned, grid construction was not emphasized enough, and there was insufficient state-level oversight and coordination between the national and state levels. Economically, grid operator supports are weaker than those for power development. With respect to curtailment, there is a mismatch between supply and demand of power. The technical factor here is that curtailment has occurred in areas when growth in power demand has not matched power supply growth, leading to a “spillage” of power. Limited transmission capacity also prevents moving energy from regions of supply to where demand is greatest. Technical issues with ramping up and down conventional coal power (meaning it is slow/difficult to do) also mean that wind is often easier to curtail if curtailment is needed. A lack of integration in governance, similar to the situation in delayed connection, is a contributing factor, leading to delays in identifying and addressing this problem, including through enforcement of regulations. Additionally, at a fundamental level, the government has always targeted capacity as opposed to generation. There are also no economic incentives for grid operators to dispatch wind over other forms of generation to offset operational risks. Fixed payments provide no additional reward for thermal generators to act as reserve to wind or act in a flexible manner to support increased wind power (or at least prevent curtailment).The government has acknowledged these issues and taken steps to address them. The 2012 White Paper on China’s energy policy highlights the need to increase grid capacity. The 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) also refers to the need to coordinate development of both grid and capacity, and there is a suggestion that the next FYP will address planning, development and integration with the goal of resolving curtailment. From a technical standpoint, forecasting, load balancing and storage, and increased connectivity are proposed to deal with the issues of connecting energy to the grid and ensuring that areas of supply and demand are properly linked. Strengthened central planning has been implemented to address governance challenges. Reformed economic incentives have also been proposed to address the economic challenges with curtailment and delayed connection. These are all examined in detail in Section 3. In some ways, China’s current challenges with wind power can be considered in terms of the country being a victim of its own success. Capacity has expanded rapidly, and the domestic industry has grown at an impressive rate. Rather than a lack of supply, the challenges of curtailment and delayed connection are issues of getting supply to demand. This could be seen as an enviable problem by many countries looking to expand renewables, but it is a problem nonetheless.
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